17th Annual Conference of the Iranian Political Science Association, Part 1
March 6, 2024 -
A World in Transition and the Post-Apocalyptic World Order
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Sasan Karimi
Abstract: The past three decades have witnessed a period of unrest, conflict, and human catastrophes in the international environment. The end of the Cold War, as an established paradigm, disrupted the mental order of theorists and politicians in the field of foreign policy and international relations. By creating a tangible analytical framework, the Cold War era had turned the abyss of international relations into a predictable scene.
The prospect of the end of the Cold War coincided with a series of events and activities in the United States, which, through a victorious perception of what was happening, was trying to establish a new order based on its own vision. These activities were taking place mostly in research institutions, think tanks, and academic environments, and apart from operational activities, they were also being pursued in a conceptual dimension. The speed of global developments and the fluidity of the international scene, however, have led to numerous miscalculations and missteps. These misperceptions about the power of global actors have led both great and middle powers to varying degrees of error. Many of the predictions and prescriptions made by international commentators and politicians regarding the post-Cold War world order have been fundamentally wrong and hasty. Examples include the proclamation of a “new world order” by the US President in the early 1990s, to the theoretical discourse in the late 1980s that claimed the “end of national sovereignty” and questioned the continued role of states in international affairs. Predictions of “global governance” generated premature optimism for multilateralism, and analyses based on the “new American century” and the declaration of victory with “mission accomplished” from the deck of a warship led to a revival of extreme unilateralism and a renewed importance of the role of the nation-state in global and international relations.
These conceptual frameworks, which have emerged over the past three decades to explain, predict, and prescribe the relations on the world stage, demonstrate the critical importance of the period under study. Following these discussions, whether existing trends will intensify or be replaced by completely different paths is examined, and therefore the need for cognitive transformation becomes more evident than ever. In such an environment, a real understanding and explicit description of the current international situation, the desired destination, and the probable path become even more important.
This chapter deals with the concept of transition in international relations, including a brief historical background, the consequences and dimensions of globalization, and the relationship between theoretical constructs and their different paradigms. An examination of the mechanisms of transition inevitably involves the study of conceptual changes, the emergence of new terms, and the reinterpretations of established power structures. In the face of the challenges posed by changing power balances, emerging sources and centers of influence, and new actors, the opportunities and pitfalls of actors will also be addressed.
Given the impossibility of hegemony, whether at the global or regional level, the analysis will be organized through confrontations between great powers, the rise of emerging powers, and the framing of concepts such as the “post-Western world,” the “de-Western state,” and the “post-polar world.”
The present study attempts to describe the characteristics of the transition and post-polar world order by reviewing the results of these perceptual errors and to provide policymakers with a clearer picture of the emerging global order by explaining the elements, actors, geography, and other characteristics of the aforementioned period.
Keywords: transition, globalization, global challenges, power, game, post-polar world.
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