The global problem of Corona, which has spread unprecedentedly in recent weeks and has particularly affected most developed and semi-industrialized countries, has raised another issue at a higher level, in addition to the health, economic, and human impacts it has had. It is as if man is now no longer aware of this point, not in the depths of liberalist books on international relations, but in the immediate scene of everyday life with all its dimensions, that the world's major issues cannot be kept behind the borders of countries by any power. If the larger powers keep themselves safe and secure by isolating countries that do not comply with their demands, if security issues are pursued unilaterally or under polar military-defense alliances, if environmental issues are ignored by the most destructive governments and companies, and if the advantages and disadvantages of different nations are hidden and presented in an engineered manner by the curtains that the media draws over international realities, then simply by virtue of its magnitude and natural urgency, Corona has shown once and for all to humanity, of every nationality, to governments with all their armies, and to all their economic, health, and medical capabilities, that human issues are pervasive and transcendental. If heads of state want to pursue issues with a unilateral and hegemonic approach and fuel power-based politics in cases where they can, Corona is a complete mirror of the failure of these old and outdated stances. A sharp and long-term view of other, less critical issues has also had this conclusion and assessment, but now, not theorists and analysts of international relations, but the general public of the world, in the face of a single and serious problem, have come close to such a conclusion and a humane approach.
For the first time since the Second World War, humanity is facing a single problem at the same time: staying home, working remotely, staying away from each other and maintaining distance, a health crisis, a shortage of equipment, an economic recession, the closure of businesses, and a deadly silence that, although it will probably be managed to a large extent in the next few weeks, has so far exposed the inability and need of human beings for each other and for resolving problems through international cooperation and the creation and observance of international regimes.
An issue that has now been clarified by a new virus with an increasing spread, which was initially considered a trivial and small matter by a unilateral government concern, and by taking the lives of tens of thousands of people in two or three months, it has brought an unprecedented shock to human society, representing all the small and large human problems that are only less urgent, and has shown that health cannot really be viewed as a national issue in the long term, and whether it is a global issue or not, it will inevitably spread between countries. The same is true for other issues: it is now clear that environmental, security and economic issues are also international issues that cannot be overcome in the long term and sustainably except by accepting international cooperation and in the form of multilateralism and the use of effective international regimes.
Therefore, unilateral and unfriendly thinking will not be able to resolve the coronavirus or any other major international issue in a sustainable and realistic manner, and human civilization, including governments, civil institutions, and nations themselves, will inevitably come closer to believing that their real and long-term interests, as a fraction, will lie in the interests of others.
On the other hand, it must be believed that a smart actor in the field of diplomacy and international relations must simultaneously seek to develop his national interests. Therefore, as an observer who looks at the issue from the perspective of Iran and has the history of the JCPOA and the post-JCPOA in his short-term historical memory, the question immediately arises: "How can the threat of Corona be turned into an opportunity to overcome the current deadlock in the country's foreign relations and its consequences?", a topic that has recently been the subject of political circles and semi-official talks between governments with the United States of America.
It seems that, given the likely outlook for health and the economy in the world, and especially the United States, no matter how weak Trump sees a Democratic opponent, he will see the biggest threat in the upcoming elections not from them but from his former strong point, the economy. This issue could potentially improve Iran's position in any direct negotiation or indirect balance of power. Because Trump, if he faces economic problems, will need a foreign relations advantage for the elections more than ever. Tying the country's national interests to his loss is, of course, far from rational. As smart actors, we must manage the issue in such a way that whichever way the US election ship is steered, we can turn ourselves into the winner of the game with our next move. In principle, with all these issues, the possibility of Trump winning is greater than his loss, and especially the motivation to use the negotiation card or deal with Iran can put him personally in a concessionary position. Although international relations are by no means a guarantee or certainty, we can be sure that rationally Trump or any politician and political movement will be the greatest protector of their achievements. On the other hand, a potential Democratic government will not behave in a way that disrupts a US government interaction - like what Trump did.
If Trump can be persuaded to suspend sanctions on Iran based on the motives mentioned above, the coronavirus pandemic will have provided Iran with the official position it adopted and presented in New York in September of last year, and Trump will have enough space to maneuver propaganda in favor of his votes at home. This can, of course, be started with mediation and practical measures such as prisoner exchanges that demonstrate the political will of the parties. Simply put, the smartest strategy against Trump, who may be in power for more than four years, is to turn his interests into his wishes. This, like the current trend regarding the coronavirus, requires that only the experts and direct custodians of the matter have the first and last word in a concentrated manner, and that the rest of the country’s resources support the operating team and strengthen its path of action at a later stage.
Shargh Daily link
File
