The year 1998 was not a special year for us from the point of view of foreign relations, and what happened was mainly a result of the issues of the previous year: maintaining the level of effective sanctions by the United States and to some extent increasing the level of verbal tension between Iran and the opposing parties. Of course, various countries made attempts to mediate, but almost all of them remained unsuccessful. Of course, there were sensitive points in the year 1998: Iran taking steps to reduce its JCPOA commitments and at the same time the European Union succeeding in maintaining a form of the JCPOA, the approach of a meeting between the Iranian and American sides on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, the assassination of General Soleimani and the Ain al-Assad compensation operation, and the escalation of the level of conflicts to the brink of a full-scale war, which was of course managed with the naked reluctance of the parties, were the culminating points that almost all remained in the middle and had no end. This overview suggests that both sides – Iran and the United States – have preferred a lopsided and divisive policy over any serious work in the past year, whether in terms of maximizing the chances of negotiations or military confrontation; a preference that probably reflects patience rather than motivation. Perhaps the United States was waiting for Iran’s position to weaken further due to maximum pressure, and Iran was looking for its defeat in the upcoming elections.
But what can be seen in the outlook for the coming year is of a more concrete nature. Because the most important event of the year 2019 is the US presidential election. An election that, although it cannot be very promising for the JCPOA and international multilateralism in general due to the weakness of the Democrats in introducing candidates and their campaign performance, can nevertheless create opportunities for our foreign policy if used appropriately.
The first fact is that every president has his weakest position before his second term. Second, although Trump does not have a real rival among the Democrats, the situation regarding the coronavirus, which will lead to an economic recession for the United States and the world, will take away his biggest domestic trump card - the economy - to some extent. On the other hand, he has an empty record in foreign policy and has been full of fruitless deals so far, so much so that he has even agreed to make a deal with the Taliban, which is neither a government nor has any real standing in international politics; although, with the behavior that we have witnessed in the past from the United States government in implementing the agreement, this deal is also shaky.
On the other hand, we must be careful not to separate ourselves from reality by mentioning and reviewing the weaknesses of the other side. In any case, Iran is not dealing with a weak government: the United States is the largest economic, financial, and military power in the world, which, at least today, is clear to everyone that it has great influence over all companies, banks, and governments in the world. Accordingly, the current president of this country also behaves in accordance with this power and will never be tied down. In addition, Donald Trump has exposed his intransigence as a personality trait. On the other hand, although the United States has not been able to achieve the goals of the maximum pressure policy in the short term - namely, the collapse of the Iranian economy and society and the overthrow of its political system - it must be admitted that it has had a major impact on the economy and the psychological peace of the society, and this is a situation that makes it necessary for Iran to get out of it by preserving its principles. In addition, investing in Trump's defeat is dangerous and risky and does not have much chance of success.
Another point is that, as the slogans say, the country's diplomacy and foreign relations should not be made the subject of internal competition: whatever can be imagined that the next government will have at its disposal to resolve the country's regional and global issues, it is better to give it to the incumbent government today, so as to prevent any further opportunity loss and to make maximum use of the advantages created by the skill of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Because diplomacy is not a game of one moment and one effort, but rather continuous successes and failures in its essence. In history and the international arena, we also see that when an issue arises for an agreement, the defeat and victory of various individuals and events that occur, countries do everything except engage in diplomacy and negotiation.
As a result, a realistic look at the current reality will outline these issues for the coming year, which both Iran and the United States must believe that they have failed to bring the other side to its knees. It is in the interest of both sides to resolve the issue in the short term, in line with their domestic issues, and pursue a more favorable situation by reducing their extreme positions and showing mutual political will.
It should be remembered that Trump will be extremely in need of and fanatical in preserving whatever is recognized as his own achievement in these eight months, for the same reason that he attacked everything that Obama achieved.
Shargh Daily link
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