Essay on Shargh Newspaper-December 8, 2019 -
The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.
Certainly, one of the most important affairs of the country in recent years and at the present time is foreign relations. This issue has gone beyond its classical level and is more important for our conditions. Because almost a large part of the pressure that citizens in the middle and poor classes of the country suffer is in some way a result of and branched off from a situation that has occurred in the country's foreign policy for whatever reason. The unilateral sanctions that Trump imposed on Iran's relations with other countries of the world by withdrawing from the JCPOA have affected the economy, health and other areas. The first point to note in this case is that it is very difficult to create a mechanism in international relations, but with the opening of this discussion, returning to it and reusing the created mechanism becomes a routine, and although its elimination requires active diplomacy, its elimination as a tradition, even if the principle of pressures is eliminated, is a long-term and much more difficult matter. So the reality that must be considered is that Trump entered a path that was already completely prepared. Therefore, from a pragmatic perspective, it must be acknowledged that despite all the oppressive mechanisms, it may be closer to the national interest and interests to fundamentally prevent the emergence of oppressive mechanisms and procedures against the country and Iran from becoming an exception in the world. In other words, a significant part of the pressure that is now being endured in the micro and macro levels of the country is related to policies that could have easily been prevented at the beginning of the pressure formation - during the Obama era. After the issues that occurred in New York, foreign policy saw a three-month period of relative silence. But recently, we have witnessed some unique strokes in foreign policy that may be able to align and connect them. First, the (currently symbolic) move by six other European countries to join INSTEX, then Yusuf bin Alawi's visit to Tehran, which is being evaluated within the framework of the Hormuz peace plan, and most importantly, the negotiations of the Deputy Foreign Minister in China, and especially the submission of the President's letter to the Prime Minister of Japan, are the most important of these. Of course, due to the lack of information about the content of these negotiations, and especially the letter sent, it is not possible to have a clear analysis of it, but one of the known cases is Dr. Rouhani's early departure to Japan in response to Abe's visit to Tehran and probably on the subject of Iran-US relations. In addition, this letter should contain a new point and proposal to open this blockage.
With an emphasis on the country's official positions on resistance and negotiation, in practice, the tension at the level that is currently underway cannot be continued in the long term, nor can it be sustained, if it can be resolved by preserving national interests and the independence of the country's vote. Today, the greatest motivation is conceivable for Trump. The failure of the foreign policy files he has opened, along with the domestic pressures resulting from his impeachment in the US House of Representatives, has placed him more than ever in a passive position and in need of success at this level. Although the unrest of last November may have changed the calculations of the other side and given him the feeling that he can now demand more concessions from the Iranian side. In this context, of course, efficient and comprehensive management of the domestic scene and the creation of a real understanding between all non-hostile parties seem essential. Another point is that experience shows that most of our country’s recent successes in negotiating and advancing it have occurred when the design of any relations with the international community and negotiation processes have been successful when they were designed at the level of the responsible institution, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Although the country’s security and political systems require complete coordination between the responsible institutions, typically the negotiation and its mechanism should be designed as a specialized matter in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Now, its implementation may be carried out in technical areas such as the Atomic Energy Organization or at higher political levels, such as the presidency. But in any case, this should not cause the initiative to be taken out of the hands of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and transferred to other institutions.
We conclude all these considerations with a look at the exchange of Iranian and American prisoners that suddenly made headlines in the middle of Saturday; an issue that was mediated by Switzerland. Although the proposal for such an exchange was raised by the Foreign Minister during his visit to New York in the first half of this year and was initially met with a negative response from the US government, its implementation and the conclusion of a sample of cases show that the Trump administration has changed its position from a position of sanctions, threats, and maximum demands that prevent any diplomacy through various means - whether from Iran, or internal US issues such as impeachment and elections, or at the international level - to a more reasonable level and has found a way to confront Iran on an equal footing; something that itself can be considered a preliminary rational basis.
Prisoner exchanges can generally be considered a practical expression of political will to fundamentally remove obstacles to dialogue. This exchange should neither be underestimated nor exaggerated. Rather, it should be based on building a structure that, while preserving and securing national interests, makes the most of Trump's current situation for the benefit of the country. This could be the most important focus of the president's upcoming trip to Japan.
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