Essay on Shargh Newspaper - December 22, 2018 -
The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.
Trump has announced his early intention to withdraw his troops from Syria; as they say, suddenly, even to his close friends and, according to statements, to his advisors. As he himself said, in order to save costs, which is also consistent with his business spirit.
The exit, which they now say will not be limited to Syria and will also include other places such as Afghanistan.
Now in the media and political space of the United States, Trump's opponents are talking about the easy and cheap gift of Syria to Iran, and some have even mentioned it as an early Christmas gift to Russia, and they also talk about the astonishment of his closest friends and circle of advisors.
On the other hand, there was news of the resignation of General Mattis, the Secretary of Defense of the Trump administration, who, although he seemed tough at the beginning of his term, later we learned that he was an opponent of the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA and has so far acted as a brake, if not an obstacle, then a brake on the Trump-Bolton-Pompeo triangle. Now, this retired general is certainly tired of this role or is simply too annoyed by Trump's uncoordinated departure - as has been leaked in the news -, in any case, both his resignation contains a message and Trump's use of the word "retirement" for someone who is already retired.
Another grain of this rosary, however, is the increasing pressure of the case related to the possible influence of Russia on the US presidential election two years ago, which, with more pressure on Michael Flynn and recent events, puts Inspector Mueller in a new position in the days after the holidays to pursue possible faults of Trump himself; A case that, along with other issues, could potentially put unprecedented pressure on the not-so-noble president of the United States.
If we put all of this together with the change in the composition of the House of Representatives and, consequently, the US Congress from the beginning of the new year, we may be able to get closer to what Trump may be thinking; although analysis is very different from prediction, and in the first place we will only discuss possible options with some preliminary remarks.
Although many, in proportion to their political distance and interests from Donald Trump and his friends, may actually or simply emphasize the victory of the Iran axis - rightly or wrongly - to bash him in the head, it is appropriate that, as analysts or policymakers, we should not be proud of these media games and fleeting politics and out of competition.
Simply as a possibility, we can and should think about an option devoid of rationality in the meantime, and that is to consider a more serious confrontation with Iran than the current situation is possible. Given the European Union's maximum political support for the JCPOA and Iran's position on this issue, as well as its unwillingness to cooperate practically with Donald Trump and his administration even on common grounds against Iran - such as the missile issue and possibly regional issues, which were always ridiculed in every game and made it impossible for them to achieve an achievement such as a UN resolution - the outcome may have brought the not-so-educated circle close to the US president closer to the option of entering into a conflict with Iran under a direct pretext or even in defense of a formal conflict on behalf of regional allies (specifically Saudi Arabia or Israel).
Such a new equation in a region that has recently been cleansed of the taint of ISIS not only overshadows Iran's strategic advantages in the region, but also marginalizes the diplomatic victory of the professional team of the Foreign Ministry, which is almost pushing the world's support - regardless of the ability of countries to translate this support into economic action, contrary to the wishes of the United States - and puts Europe, which has today actively adopted a position opposed to the US government, in a passive position in which, at most, if it wants to play a role similar to a mediator, it must consider the aggressor, the United States, in the upper hand.
This passive and reactive game, in view of America's lack of achievement in the return of sanctions and its failure to succeed in the Iranian oil embargo - to the extent that was predicted and hoped for - along with the fruitlessness of the nuclear show policy with North Korea, also makes it possible.
In addition, through this, many of Saudi Arabia's arms expenditures will probably be depreciated and the warehouses will be emptied under the pretext of something like a "coalition", and Bin Salman, who is extremely under all-round pressure and a crisis of international legitimacy, will also move away from the center of attention.
Israel and its lobby will also be more satisfied than before, and the Netanyahu government will also imagine a greater chance of survival. Because its power in the game of domestic politics is also in danger of being lost today more than ever.
An important and perhaps most important achievement for Trump himself, in addition to "bustling the city" and escaping the labyrinth of problems, is laying the groundwork for the elections that will determine the fate of the next government of his country in the next year and a half: he can think that with this he will hit several birds with one stone and, most importantly, become president for the second time.
In such a scenario, he will certainly not only lose the support of the Europeans but will also be under severe attacks from his domestic rivals. But what is the fear that today, as the elections approach, he will be the target of increasing attacks and widespread criticism, and who does not know that the tongues of the opponents and the dirty-hearted allies are more closed in time of war than in any peace?
In other words, this option should also be considered among other possibilities, as by proposing such a scenario, saving costs and budgets in areas that are of little interest to Trump and are in fact the continuation of projects of previous presidents – such as Afghanistan and Syria – has been put on the agenda, and his and his small team’s decision to withdraw from those areas in favor of a “more cost-effective” project that (in their opinion) solves many problems at once: something that has led to the opposition of the softer element of the government, the veteran Pentagon general, and ultimately led to his resignation.
Whatever it is, it must be acknowledged that the Trump team is becoming smaller and more limited, but at the same time more convergent, and this convergence and lack of plurality of votes in the American system, where the president has almost undisputed power, can easily lead to stupid decisions; something we have already seen with George W. Bush (the younger) – who was extremely wiser compared to the current occupant of the White House – in the same way.
What should be clarified is that all of the above, regardless of whether they are true or not, and assuming that they are among the countless illusions of America's number one man, is merely an analysis and an attempt to find a line and connection between the points that reach our eyes and ears and is certainly not a claim for news of the unseen and prophecy. At the same time, proposing such a possibility saves us from mistakes that inadvertently give an excuse to competitors and enemies and also protects us from surprise.
Therefore, as has always been the case, while maintaining and improving the level of strict readiness, today it is necessary for all military, defense and security movements to be carefully examined several times and approved and approved by the country's higher institutions and assemblies with a higher level of examination. Because a normal move in another time can now, more than ever, become the subject of excuses and arbitrariness from the rationalists of the region and the world. And the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is certainly decisive in this, both through its comprehensive understanding of the regional and international environment and its ability to influence and create space in it, perhaps even more than is customary in the country's usual practice.
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