Interview with Ham Mihan Newspaper on the fate of the JCPOA and the US presidential election on March 16, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Sasan Karimi, Professor of the Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran: Iran's foreign policy is typically stable in terms of policymaking and principles, but at the same time, the reality is that our diplomacy and foreign policy are not agile and efficient enough at the moment for two reasons: one is the dominance of the issue of sanctions and isolation of Iran by the United States and now Europe, and the other is the lack of mobility and possibly the necessary efficiency at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In my opinion, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at its highest level is experiencing a kind of confusion and lack of recognition and mobility necessary for any correction of the country's current undesirable situation in the international environment and even the region. If we look at various issues, especially in the north (such as the issues of China's access roads to the European Union) and the south (the investments and progress of the Arabs in various fields and their role, especially Qatar's, in high-level international and regional equations), we will notice a fundamental need to reform our foreign policy. The Islamic Republic of Iran should not fall into the trap of securitization and imposing isolation, which at least the United States and Israel have been policy-making and acting for. Our foreign policy in the past two years has been suffering from the pain of passivity on the one hand, as well as a cognitive error on the issue of Russia and its approach in the equations related to us.
It does not seem that the Islamic Republic of Iran has had the upper hand either in the issue of the war itself or in the subsequent consultations. The activities of our Foreign Minister have had a symbolic aspect more than anything else. In a situation where we see what role a small and important country has created for itself in consultations and so on at such a critical moment, and despite the fact that even the leaders of Hamas officially live under its protection, it does not tolerate any accusations, security measures, or pressure, what we see from the Minister and his inactive deputies is minimal and very old. Today, we see even less activity from the deputies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs than we saw in the early days of the government. It is as if at first he was being pressured into positions and approaches that, after a little time, have become clear to him that they are not operational and realistic. Therefore, the result will be nothing but a loss of self-confidence and passivity on the part of the agent.
In the coming eighteen months, we see four critical periods as the context for the central issues of our foreign policy:
Farvardin to Aban next year, which will be the US elections, from the day after the elections until the formation of the government in late January 1403, from the formation of the new US government to the Iranian presidential elections in Khordad 1404, and from the Iranian elections to Mehr 1404, which is the final sunset of the JCPOA and the permanent lifting of all Security Council resolutions against us; an important and exceptional achievement of the JCPOA that will be finalized at that time. The most important aspect of our foreign policy should be to protect the final sunset of the JCPOA in October 2025. Our adversaries are naturally implementing projects that will make us more and more secure and, as a result, move the atmosphere to a direction where they can then throw it under the table and move the issue forward in a different way, preventing this permanent abrogation of the six resolutions. The reality is that this sunset is the most important and fundamental stage and its greatest achievement that has been achieved in any case. Today, the task of preserving it and taking care that it does not deteriorate is on the current helmsmen of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The fate of the nation will have a definite impact from this sunset, and therefore we should not approach it with negligence and unrealistic ideas of equations. The current passivity of the high level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is our main affliction in this area. We must note that in any case, we will be facing the second (and last) president in the United States, and it is clear that in the second term, American presidents make more decisive decisions and implement their desired foreign policy. Therefore, it seems that we will witness increased pressure in the areas of sanctions, especially oil and finance. Especially if Trump comes to power, the work will become much more difficult, both in resistance and in creating any kind of opening. Therefore, from now on, policy-making should be done with expertise and professionalism, not necessarily by cadres, but rather in the two-month period between the election of the president and the formation of the government in Washington, which is very decisive. All capacities should be used during that period of time.
Hammihan Link
File
