Interview with Zannameh Ham Myhan, January 10, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Sasan Karimi, Professor of the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran and an Analyst of International Affairs:
Iran and the United States have no interest in escalating the war.
Dr. Sasan Karimi, Professor of the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran and an Analyst of International Affairs, said in an interview with Ham Myhan: “The Biden administration is trying to go through its period leading up to the presidential elections with the least problems, both in the Middle East and in China.” The university professor said: “Iran and the United States have no interest in escalating the war.” Karimi also emphasized: “The origin and motivation of the understanding between Iran and the United States was the US presidential elections.”
The US message and its unconfirmed details indicate a kind of overlap between the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States. Can the fact that Tehran and Washington do not want to escalate the war and at the same time hold Netanyahu responsible for this issue lead to a form of cooperation like previous examples between the two countries?
I know that in the past 6 months, as a prelude to everything that has happened in the past few days, there was news that Iran and the US had an understanding to control the tension. This will exists on both sides; of course, the main motivation of the American side is to control and not increase the tension, but Iran wants this understanding to be about the revival of the JCPOA and the issue of sanctions. Mr. Biden's administration is trying to go through its period leading up to the presidential elections with the fewest problems, both in the Middle East and in China. In this regard, however, it is not interested in positive measures such as negotiations to revive the JCPOA and is trying to reduce the number of elements in the equations. As a result, the issue that has caused a disturbance now is the issue of the war in Gaza, which has been brought into play to control the tension, either by putting pressure on Netanyahu or because the Israeli Prime Minister is trying to spread the tension to other regions of the Middle East in order to get rid of the war, and to prevent the war from spreading through a message to Iran. Iran, on the other hand, has the same interests, and Tehran's interests are to prevent the war from spreading and to prevent tension from entering the country, which is due to the costs of the war and at the same time to relieve Netanyahu of the pressure of the war in Gaza.
These provocations, whether the assassinations carried out by Israel or the one carried out by ISIS in Kerman, which some also raise the issue of Israel's involvement in, can directly and indirectly pave the way for Iran to be provoked. Tehran has shown to date that it acts with great restraint on this issue and reacts with calculation and prevents it from falling into Israel's trap that would benefit it.
While we have witnessed that whenever Iran and the United States were seeking to establish dialogue, understanding or agreement, a third force in the region has intervened to block this path; can the assassinations carried out by Israel, which are considered to be provocations by Iran and its proxies, disrupt this path?
I think in this case it is the opposite and it is not that Iran and America are getting closer and now the third factor which is Israel wants to prevent this issue, it is that Israel is trying to drag Iran into the middle for its own purposes, but Iran and America have no interest in this issue, so they are trying to prevent it. Of course, this seriousness of Iran has continued and it seems that it is a strategic and long-term path that has been adopted in Iran so as not to fall into Israel's trap and this policy was announced on the third day of the war in the leadership's speech at the officer academy. However, many traps may arise and even some developments may not be from Israel but Tel Aviv may use it. In any case, the sensitivity of America and the proximity to the elections will cause America to try to manage developments, especially if a direct channel is established, I do not think we will witness misunderstandings and Iran entering the war.
You mentioned the verbal understanding formed between Iran and the United States. Within the framework of that understanding, Iran's blocked money was transferred from South Korea to Qatar, but now it seems that due to the pressure on the White House, the US has announced to Qatar that Iran is not able to use these resources. On the other hand, we see that the issue of reducing Iran's 60% uranium reserves, which had been reduced within the framework of the same understanding, has increased according to a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which could be a reaction to the same issue of money available in Qatar; how likely is it that that understanding will be released from the freeze and there will be room to increase its level again?
It is unlikely that this will happen because the origin and motivation of that verbal understanding was also the US election. The Biden administration tried to reduce tension while not being interested in entering into a risky issue such as the revival of the JCPOA, in order to prevent an increase in tension from Iran. When this understanding is attacked within the United States, it is not just the issue of the blocked funds that is at stake, but also its reflection on the political and electoral atmosphere in the United States. The United States tried to create a balance so that on the one hand Iran would reduce the level of enrichment, which they also know has no practical deterrent, and on the other hand it would not suffer from domestic pressure; how successful it will be depends on the actions of the Biden administration.
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