In an interview with ILNA, international affairs analyst Sasan Karimi said: The international situation has changed. In fact, the Iranian nuclear file has fallen out of the West's, and especially the United States', priority. The war in Ukraine, and consequently Russia's situation in the international environment, Iran's domestic situation last year, the Gaza war, and the upcoming elections in the United States are conditions that have changed compared to the previous era, and as a result, the desirability of reviving the JCPOA has decreased for a long time compared to the current situation for Western parties. The reality is that at the end of the twelfth administration and the beginning of the thirteenth administration, there was a very positive atmosphere on the other side of the JCPOA revival negotiation table, which unfortunately was affected by discussions related to domestic and factional politics, identity issues, and mistaken and delusional beliefs. At that time, we had an implicit boast about using the word JCPOA or avoiding it. Unfortunately, some of those who took over foreign policy in the new government thought that negotiations and reaching an agreement depended only on their will and that the other side would always be behind the door, which was not the case. Now they have realized, but unfortunately it is too late and national interests have been wasted in various ways.
In response to the question of why Iran or even Europe are not taking the lead for a new round of negotiations these days, Karimi said: The Europeans are less supportive of the revival of the JCPOA than before. Especially in Germany, after the change in government, we witnessed tough positions, and in the events of last year, these positions became even tougher. This is to the extent that today, in some cases, the United States government is adjusting the European positions towards the Islamic Republic. On the Iranian side, however, we have repeatedly witnessed expressions of interest from Mr. Amir Abdollahian, but there has been no response. He has even enthusiastically announced many times that he receives messages from the Americans repeatedly. But this is also a panacea after Sohrab's death, because based on this, there is no readiness in the Biden administration to start such negotiations until the presidential election.
In response to the question that in the past, there was talk of the Oman, Japan and similar plans to conclude the negotiations. In your opinion, what function could the launch of these plans have in advancing the negotiations, he said: During the Trump era, when the Japanese and others presented mediation proposals, for some reason there was no situation in which we could give a positive response to them. Now, however, Oman and Qatar are content with operational proposals on ad hoc and trivial issues related to the movement of money, etc. Because they have realized the meaning that when it was possible to take real action and take basic steps to revive the JCPOA, the parties did not take action due to wasting time and misconceptions such as the harsh winter, etc., and today the United States is not ready for this. Therefore, Oman, Qatar and other countries are not showing much movement. In addition, the weakness of our diplomacy has been revealed today.
In response to the question of what parameters are necessary for the parties to start a new round of negotiations to return to the negotiating table, Karimi said: I think that such readiness cannot be expected in the current US administration. Our current administration also does not have the necessary technical readiness. Therefore, if the Democrats come to power, assigning a new team and person for these negotiations could be promising.
This international affairs analyst said about the recent trips of our country's Foreign Minister to Qatar and the possibility of raising the issue of reviving the JCPOA there: "If there is any dialogue, it is more about the issue of Gaza and Hamas than the JCPOA." In the current situation, I see the Qataris and Omanis as more realistic and intelligent than they are to put themselves through such a struggle.
In response to the question, in our past negotiations, we witnessed an unwritten agreement. In your opinion, what is the current status of this unwritten agreement? He said: The unwritten and even unspoken agreement is still ongoing. For now, Iran and the United States see themselves in a state of equilibrium with respect to the options that do not increase tension, increase nuclear developments, increase sanctions, etc. It is likely that concessions will be made in the sale of oil to China in return for issues that were acceptable to the Islamic Republic of Iran and are no longer available. The only thing that should be taken into account is the lack of oil quota sales, the increase in import and money transfer costs, the security situation in the region and, as a result, the lack of cost-effective cooperation with Iran for foreign companies, as well as the lack of foreign investment, the outflow of capital and human resources, etc., which have been imposed on Iran under this state of suspension. In a word, our survival is not in danger in the current situation, even in a situation of maximum pressure, which was many times more than today, and the project of the likes of Trump and Pompeo has faced a heavy defeat in this sense. But our development has almost stopped, and this issue cannot be ignored and we should be indifferent to it.
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