Sasan Karimi, a lecturer at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran, in an interview with Ham Mihan:
In response to all questions about the negotiations, the Iranian Foreign Minister speaks of the Oman initiative. Is there any initiative on this issue at all?
No. In my opinion, although the Foreign Minister is pursuing the above goal, that is, trying to present Iran as genuinely willing to resolve the issue, it can be said that he is not doing it in a professional manner. The repetition of this enthusiasm and desire after two years is completely absurd and has become its own reflection. It could be said that even this repetition puts Iran’s hand lower on the diplomatic stage. Basically, it would be better for him not to repeat the unilateral intention of the declarant so explicitly. At the same time, I find it unlikely that the issue of the initiative in Muscat, Doha or elsewhere is serious. In addition to what was recently heard, the US has canceled the talks that were supposed to be held in Oman in light of the developments in the region. In any case, any professional observer can easily understand that in the current situation, any negotiation between them is unlikely and its content (if it is unlikely) requires a much higher level of agency than the current negotiating power.
With the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the US announced that the revival of the JCPOA had been removed from the White House’s agenda; could the Gaza crisis, in reverse, once again make the JCPOA a priority for the US?
It is unlikely that it will turn into its opposite. The reality is that today, more than ever, we have realized that the world’s conditions do not remain static and wait for us. It is not that whenever we decide to negotiate, etc., all other elements are with us. Russia’s attack on Ukraine completely derailed the issue of the JCPOA revival, and today, this revived bipolarity around the Palestinian issue has made the task more difficult than ever.
Of course, the fact that the agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia did not materialize and, given the war in Gaza, has been at least postponed to a large extent, is an opportunity. But it should be noted that the governments that benefit the most from these two wars, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, will not be very willing to make understandings that would reduce or require the reduction of these gaps. We have the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, the elections in the United States, etc. ahead of us, to the detriment of the issue of the JCPOA revival and any global convergence around such an issue.
What are the components today that can revive hope for the JCPOA revival?
There is not much hope at the moment. Especially since we need internal cohesion more than anything else for successful diplomatic negotiations, which unfortunately is not seen much at the moment. What is needed first is the restoration of internal cohesion and public will, and then a real will in the entirety of the government to move towards reducing unnecessary tensions at the international level. Issues such as a qualitative broker and also a new type of border demarcation, especially with Russia, so that while maintaining relations, issues such as what happened in the winter of 1400 are not at the initiative of Moscow, are the next issues. I see the reform of the country's foreign relations as a medium-term matter, not a short-term one, and that too has the conditions that have been stated.
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