The 13th government's foreign policy was towards the East, but due to the sanctions, they could not even do this properly. Some even analyze that the Chinese could not bring the 25-year agreement to fruition, which is why there are sanctions and Iran remains on the FATF blacklist. What is your opinion?
Some analyze that Iran's foreign policy has changed at a macro level. For example, in the events that took place between Hamas and Israel, Iran has tried to proceed with diplomacy. What is your opinion on this?
This kind of policy-making is beyond the government and I think it is very wise. It is wise for three reasons: one, Iran does not want to be part of a game that has been played out by someone else. Second, it is not very sure and is careful not to be pushed into a trap that involves engaging in a discussion that is not its own initiative, such as war or something else. Third, any kind of engagement now will be a lifeline for the Zionist regime. I think Iran was careful from the very beginning not to free Israel from this credit and operational predicament. By starting any kind of conflict, it will fuel Israel’s securitization and will allow Israel to act in advance. Because it thinks it can declare that it is facing an existential threat from Iran, Hezbollah, etc. Therefore, Iran, by keeping its distance from the scene, firstly showed that it is only willing to act in games where the initiative is its own, so it does not enter the game that others want to play. In fact, it supports it, but in practice it does not lose its initiative. Second, it does not want Iran’s move to be abused at all.
What do you think the best kind of foreign policy for Iran today would be?
Basically, we must first correct our understanding of foreign policy, that is, correct and update the picture we have of the environment and international order, and adjust it to the realities and perceptions of other major actors in the world, such as China and so on. We must consult scholars in this field to explain the situation to us. Second, we must determine our priorities, we cannot have thousands of priorities. Determine the priority and the scene of competition so that we can see what our priority is? And then we can plan the reform of our foreign policy in a medium-term dimension and move towards it. Reforming foreign policy or foreign relations requires more strategic patience in achieving results. Also, most importantly, it requires a kind of national cohesion among domestic groups that all converge together in a project that wants to reform foreign policy. Today, our foreign policy requires more professional agents. The reality is that our agents in Mr. Raisi's government, especially the negotiating agents, became a bottleneck. In fact, in the negotiations, we can say that they did not bring the game to a conclusion quickly enough that we got involved in other elements and elements, such as the war in Ukraine and then today the issue of Gaza and Hamas. Basically, the issue of lifting sanctions became irrelevant. We must be able to correct this and wait for it to stabilize.
Basically, the biggest guarantee in foreign relations in countries that have reformed their foreign relations is, first, the issue of trade and creating mutual benefits. Second, the aging of agreements and the international environment getting used to those agreements; otherwise, the international environment, which is a primitive environment, does not have any police or observers or a single power above governments that we can expect someone to force our counterpart to fulfill their obligations. Finally, there is a factional problem in our foreign policy that must be corrected in the first step.
Do you think it is possible for the United States to return to the JCPOA and revive it in the next year, while the US elections are approaching?
No, I do not think we will reach this point in the next year until the US elections, because it is not a US priority and has gone beyond the US priority. This issue is an incalculable matter in US domestic policy; Therefore, the Biden administration does not intend to add such an issue to its electoral equations, because it cannot calculate its consequences. While this was not the case at the beginning of Mr. Raisi's administration and at the end of Mr. Rouhani's administration. Revival of the JCPOA was America's priority and its revival was indeed possible. The United States has now relaxed the conditions somewhat, meaning that oil sanctions have been placed in exchange for guarantees or promises and agreements, and it seems that Mr. Biden is satisfied with the conditions he has with Iran for his election and does not see the need for more risk. However, in the longer term, the reality is that revitalization of the JCPOA is still possible, but certainly not with the brokers we currently have and we see that it is very difficult.
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