In an interview with ILNA, foreign policy analyst Sasan Karimi, in response to the question that on October 18, one of the sunset clauses related to the lifting of the missile and drone arms embargo ended. However, given the current conditions, the European Troika announced that these sanctions will remain in place. What is your analysis of the situation that has arisen, said: Our legal situation is different after each sunset than before. Whether Europe or any other party to the JCPOA does not want to implement and operate measures and operations appropriate to each stage under various pretexts is another matter. But due to the fact that from a legal perspective, the sunset of the JCPOA is automatic and does not require approval or a decision from the parties to the JCPOA, it is legally achieved. But in the current situation, the implementation of the JCPOA, not its principle, is facing obstacles. Like any other party, Europe or others may fail to fulfill their obligations or make excuses.
Regarding Iran's actions in response to any possible decision by Europe to disrupt the process after the end of the arms embargo, Karimi said: "As a rule, Iran will register its diplomatic protest. But perhaps due to its own considerations, it will refrain from referring the matter to the JCPOA Joint Commission and using the dispute resolution mechanism foreseen in it, as the opposing parties have always made it their business to refrain. There is an implicit agreement between the various parties that taking what are considered unilateral compensatory measures is more acceptable or tolerable than questioning the text's principle and even referring to the dispute resolution mechanism.
He noted: This is of course because all parties, first, consider themselves to have potentially proportionate leverage to compensate for what they consider to be the other party’s failure to fulfill its obligations, and second, they still classify the JCPOA as a text that can be relied upon and potentially reversed, and overall, they consider its existence to be useful for multilateral international relations as well as international peace and security, both operationally and symbolically.
Regarding the scenarios that are set to emerge after October 18, Karimi said: “I think Iran may take a nuclear step forward in response to the failure to fulfill European obligations and in fact confront the Europeans with the consequences of its actions. At the same time, Iran’s efforts to establish the right to nuclear exchanges may lead to actions in buying and selling weapons with close parties (politically). These parties could potentially be Russia and China more than any other country. But at least China does not seem to want to create unnecessary costs for itself in dealing with Europe and the United States on any non-economic issue. As is not seen in history. China is not willing to strain relations with the West even for its own issues and, contrary to the will and provocation of the United States, will not submit to the security of its operating environment.
He added: We have seen this in issues such as Taiwan and the balloon shot down in the United States, etc. Therefore, for the issue of Iran, it will never be willing to create the slightest dissatisfaction in its Western partners in the first place. As for Russia, the issue of Su-35 aircraft and other weapons such as the S-400 missile system, etc. are still open and pressure can be put on Moscow in these areas. Of course, the Russians have never prioritized any issue other than their direct benefit, including reducing our relative power.
In response to the question of what impact Europe's decision not to respect the end of the arms embargo will have on the United States, Karimi said: "The United States, namely Mr. Biden's administration, currently has only one priority in mind, and that is the upcoming presidential election, and it is weighing almost all issues, including the Iranian and nuclear issues, the Israeli issue, etc., against it. Unfortunately, we have lost everything we had in this regard at the beginning of the 13th administration, and everything we did, and although our Foreign Minister repeatedly and unilaterally expressed optimism about the issue of revitalizing the JCPOA, was not effective. Due to the delay that was made at the beginning of the administration, the work was not done and the United States was not satisfied with revitalizing the JCPOA. Therefore, it seems that an agreement was reached that there would be no agreement and that there would be no increase in the level of tensions, and it seems that this was not limited to the nuclear issue.
This foreign policy expert said: "At the same time, it seems that the Biden administration has achieved what it intended to do in the short term, and what has been done has been its priorities and not our priorities, namely the lifting of sanctions." We have been deprived of the possibility of normalizing our situation in the international environment that has the greatest impact on our oil sales and trade, and have been content with a minimal level of transactions in oil sales to China and others.
He added: What Europe has put at the forefront of its stances in confronting Iran today is far more severe and strict than the American version. Therefore, the United States does not need much to re-position itself on this issue. First, the United States is not a member of the JCPOA, and second, in its indirect negotiations, as explained above, it has reached its desired conditions and its electoral needs have been met with minimal risk. On the other hand, Europe, which - unlike the United States - finds itself involved in confronting Russia on the issue of Ukraine, has spared the United States from changing its position. Today, the United States is pursuing the issue of the Gaza war more than anything else and is trying to at least not suffer any losses if it cannot use it to the advantage of the upcoming elections.
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