International affairs analyst Sasan Karimi, in an interview with ILNA reporter, said regarding Amir Abdullahian's statements regarding the Sultan of Oman's idea for all parties to return to the JCPOA: It is difficult to guess what this means. But I think the new Sultan of Oman is seeking to continue the role of mediator of Sultan Qaboos, and in the meantime he has a competitor named Qatar. Therefore, he is trying to repeat something similar to the initiative of 1990 and 1991. But the reality is that in the world of politics, each event typically happens only once. Therefore, the possibility that he will be able to recognize such proposals as valid is not high. Especially since Mr. Amir Abdullahian has made this issue a media issue, in my opinion, the matter is less likely. Basically, the more the weight of media matters increases, it mainly indicates that the initiatives have faded.
In response to the question that, considering that during Iran's negotiations with the European Union, Josep Borrell talked about ideas and solutions for negotiations, what do you think the Sultan of Oman's idea could be different from the ideas of the European side and how much hope can be given for the parties' acceptance of it, Karimi said: "I am not very hopeful. The unwritten understanding that is apparently in place to prevent the level of tension between Iran and the United States from increasing, confirms to me that the Biden administration is not looking to revive the JCPOA at all, at least until the presidential elections. Therefore, Europe, which has not secured its interests in the meantime and has seen itself as unprofitable, is looking to turn the situation around so that it can at least define economic interests for itself. This, of course, coincides with the efforts of European governments to maintain their positions towards Iran due to the war in Ukraine and their recent claims. This position may lead to increased tension in the direction of the sunset of arms sanctions.
He added: "But the reality is that the main initiative in the West is in the hands of the United States, and Europe has the power to establish norms more than anything else in the world today, which, by the way, has largely tied its hands on this axis, given its positions and claims regarding Iran and the war in Ukraine. Therefore, by presenting a plan and proposal, it cannot simply persuade Washington to do something that is not necessarily calculable and may end up to the detriment of the Democratic Party in the elections. So the work will not end so easily in the revival of the JCPOA. Something that could have been easily done is unlikely today. This error of vision may be the cause of the same delays that stopped the work for several months at the beginning of the 13th government, and ultimately we have unintentionally found our fate tied to the war in Ukraine."
In response to the question that Oman is trying to present an idea to somehow make its role more important than before, Karimi said: "In any case, Muscat's most important identity is its role as a mediator. Therefore, it constantly tries to highlight its color among the Persian Gulf countries. However, Oman lags behind its competitors in terms of economy, trade, and oil and gas, and as a result, its role is more of a political one. Especially in the issue between Tehran and Riyadh, where China took on the main role, Oman has emphasized this issue more than before. Therefore, I personally evaluate Oman's attempt to play a role as more willful and less in line with reality." Oman will not have an easy time moving forward on this issue beyond the current point, and the reason for this is Biden’s reluctance to take on such an incalculable task, despite our repeated enthusiasm.
In response to the question of what do you think Iran’s response to this idea will be, this foreign policy analyst said: Our Foreign Ministry has repeatedly expressed its enthusiasm in the media over the past year, which of course is not at all correct and professional. So the government will probably react enthusiastically to this issue. But as I said, unlike the first year of the Biden administration, today the bottleneck for the revival of the JCPOA is not in Tehran. Unfortunately, there is less understanding in the new government that not all the determining elements of relations are in our hands, and it is not the case that every time we make a gesture, we witness the other parties running. That the conditions of countries, global relations, etc. are changing is a basic reality in diplomacy that is unfortunately sometimes ignored and opportunities are missed.
In response to the question of how likely it is that relations will improve with recent ideas and mediations, given the recent statement by the European Troika and the recent sanctions imposed by some European countries against our country, Karimi said: "For now, given that Europe has prepared itself to disrupt the upcoming sunset of the JCPOA, we cannot expect such a rapprochement. For this reason, Iran must keep both paths open; both try not to show itself too eager, and at the same time try to change Europe's position on the upcoming sunset and keep the way open for interaction between them."
He clarified: We need a more professional outlook and performance at the top of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Unfortunately, neither in the diplomatic nor media dimension do we witness the prominence of agency, and this has affected the fate of our foreign policy. If we look closely, the temporary and occasional initiatives and events that have arisen in foreign policy and security issues have mainly occurred outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which includes the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council and the Atomic Energy Organization, etc.
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