Possibility of an emergency landing of the "Su-35" on Tehran's soil?!

۱۳ شهریور ۱۴۰۲ Interviews

Interview with Fararoo website, September 5, 2020 -

The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai

In general, from my point of view, receiving the Su-35 from Russia is a positive thing. Because it helps increase the country's military and defense power, but political acumen must be exercised to ensure that importing the Su-35 does not become costly for Iran. There is no precise information available about when the Su-35 will enter Iran. But I believe that importing the Su-35 after October and the JCPOA sunset deadline is more logical than before this date. I believe that if the news of receiving the Su-35 is reported in the media after the JCPOA sunset, on the one hand, it will not be an obstacle to lifting the arms embargo and the JCPOA sunset, and on the other hand, it can stabilize the lifting of the sanctions.

The American magazine Forbes has claimed in a report that Russia will soon deliver a number of Su-35 fighter jets to Iran. According to Forbes, the delivery of several Yak-130 training aircraft suggests that Iran may also receive Su-35s in the near future.

According to Fararo, the report partly discusses the ups and downs of the Iran-Russia Su-35 deal. Iranian officials had expressed optimism that Russia would deliver the Su-35s in March of this year. Since then, optimism has waned, and Russia has not fulfilled its contract to supply Iran with 50 Su-35s, which Tehran paid for in 2021.

However, there has been speculation for some time that Iran will receive at least 24 Su-35s that Russia previously built for Egypt, but this has not happened yet. Some analysts believe that the war in Ukraine may have disrupted previous delivery plans. These delays reached a point where in July of this year, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Ashtiani said, regarding the question of “we were supposed to buy the Su-35 fighter jet,” “Yes, we were supposed to buy it. But at some point you will make an appointment, but later a situation may arise in which you yourself will have the capability. However, we are studying and following up on this issue.” These words were made in a situation where more than three years ago, Shahriar Heydari, a member of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, stated that these fighter jets had been ordered from Russia and would arrive in our country early next year.

Now, given the increasingly serious possibility of importing a number of Su-35s to the country, some questions arise: including whether, in a situation where Iran is de-escalating tensions with the United States, could the import of the Su-35s lead to a change in the agreed plans? And will the import of the Su-35s to the country witness an increase in Iran-Russia arms cooperation on the eve of the JCPOA? In order to answer these questions, Fararoo spoke with Sasan Karimi, a lecturer at the University of Tehran and an international affairs analyst:

The importance of the timing of the delivery of the Su-35 to Iran

Sasan Karimi said: “It seems that the issue of the Su-35 and drones, which are inherently related, are gradually turning from a threat into an opportunity. What we saw before was that there was a very high sensitivity from Europe and to some extent the United States in this regard. But now that news about behind-the-scenes negotiations between Iran and the United States is being published in the media, the Europeans have also reduced their level of protests a little. Some Western media have also published rumors and unconfirmed information claiming that Iran has promised to reduce arms cooperation with Russia in order to de-escalate tensions with the United States.”

He added: “In general, from my point of view, receiving the Su-35 from Russia is a positive thing. Because it helps increase the country's military and defense power, but political acumen must be exercised to ensure that the import of the Su-35 does not become costly for Iran. There is no precise information available about when the Su-35 will enter Iran. But I believe that the import of the Su-35 after October and the JCPOA sunset deadline is more logical than before this date. I believe that if the news of the receipt of the Su-35 is reported in the media after the JCPOA sunset, on the one hand it will not be an obstacle to the lifting of arms sanctions and the JCPOA sunset, and on the other hand it can stabilize the lifting of sanctions."

This political analyst said: "It seems that if the delivery of the Su-35s is carried out soon, it will be carried out within the framework of the balance policy, meaning that the interaction between Iran and the United States to return to the JCPOA could cause Moscow to become more competitive, although unfortunately we have not acted in principle in the balance policy and we have weaknesses in this regard. It is because of this failure to properly implement the balancing policy that we sometimes become a cheap partner for Russia and China. It is positive that we have many cooperations with China and Russia, but along with these cooperations, we must also move forward within the framework of the balancing policy with Europe and the United States. On this basis, I say that the delivery date of the Su-35 is important.”

He added: “In the current situation, the publication of the news of the delivery of the Su-35 seems more important than the delivery itself; therefore, it is possible that even the publication of this news about the Su-35 by Forbes is aimed at causing problems on the eve of the JCPOA, and such a hypothesis is not far from the mind. In general, Europe has the necessary excuse to sabotage the work on the eve of the JCPOA. This excuse is mainly focused on the claims of European countries about Iranian drones and the war in Ukraine. But Europe’s main gaze is towards Washington, not Moscow. In fact, the main orders for action are issued from Washington.”

We did little to resolve the drone disputes

The Tehran University lecturer said: "The Biden administration has a high capacity for consensus and persuasion due to the fact that it has the necessary legitimacy in the political space of the Western world. Therefore, it is not that there is a competition between Iran and Europe in Washington. It is a competition between the expediency of Washington and Brussels. The European Union's project is not to secure Iran, which seeks to pressure Iran in any way possible. If the Americans specifically give the Europeans the green light that: "Talks have been held on issues of concern to Europe and promises have been made from Iran," it is unlikely that the Europeans will seek to intensify pressure on Iran. In parallel, Iranian officials have also concluded after a long time that the JCPOA should be revived. Biden’s priority before the election is not to revive the JCPOA in its legal sense, but rather to seek an unwritten and non-public agreement to “freeze for freeze” and maintain peace. While this type of agreement has the least amount of benefits for us, because our need to lift sanctions is very high in legal, legal and even psychological terms, and this level of agreement is not enough for us. Even if oil sales and some other conditions are restored, we will still be far from complete normalization.”

He added: “Resolving the drone issue and the European claims about Iran and Russia’s drone cooperation in the Ukraine war requires expert expertise and professional diplomacy that must be pursued at the highest levels of the Foreign Ministry. Unfortunately, although Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian and Ministry Spokesperson Kanaani have repeatedly denied this issue, we have not witnessed any persuasive power to resolve the drone issue. If I were to summarize all the issues, I believe that the benefits of the Sukhoi import for the country outweigh the disadvantages, and I even guess that this import was accompanied by the green light from the US to Iran. But I would like to point out once again that there is another hypothesis; it is possible that the main goal behind the publication of this news about the Sukhoi 35 is to disrupt the path of de-escalation between Iran and the US.

Fararo Link