ILNA News Interview July 10, 2023 -
He added: The next reality is that the JCPOA, which now lacks its two main functions, namely its economic function for Iran and its function of limiting the level of enrichment, still retains one of its most important dimensions (in Iran's favor), which is the sunsets of the JCPOA. The logic governing Europe's behavior is that now that the United States has withdrawn from the JCPOA and Iran has taken its compensatory measures, Europe does not see the need to take steps to fulfill its obligations in implementing the JCPOA. Because it thinks that this situation of ambiguity is such that the possibility of a sharper atmosphere for Iran and the United States is not available and is not desirable. Therefore, paying the political cost, especially within European public opinion, is not cost-effective for these countries. Therefore, they are also trying to use the existing ambiguity to the benefit of not fulfilling their obligations. This statement is in line with an attempt to put pressure on Iran in a situation where a sharper atmosphere is not in anyone's favor.
In response to the question of whether Europe will seek to activate the trigger mechanism against Iran with this statement, Karimi said: Not necessarily. Incidentally, I think Europe’s policy in this regard is to put Iran on the edge of the snapback mechanism. Let me tell you that we do not have a trigger mechanism. The dispute resolution mechanism foreseen in the JCPOA has its own conditions that are not politically accepted in the West to this day. But at the same time, we cannot be complacent. Perhaps these atmosphere-building measures are aimed at further securing Iran and will ultimately facilitate the restoration of the Chapter 7 sanctions against the country that were lifted in the JCPOA at the appropriate time.
Wei added: “Especially since we know that one of the most important sunsets of the JCPOA in 2025 is the permanent collapse of the six resolutions against Iran, so that they can no longer be restored through the dispute resolution mechanism. Therefore, although this issue is not at the top of the West’s priorities in the short term, these measures are moving in that direction; especially if a Republican government in Washington succeeds the current government and the weight of extremism in the West increases from the current conditions.”
In response to the question of what Iran should do to counter this behavior of Europe so that the issue of lifting the arms embargo does not become a challenging issue in the negotiations, Karimi said: "We must take the excuse from the West at all costs. Cooperation with the Agency in such a way that the possibility of escalating the situation is eliminated is one of the axes. Another point regarding the negotiations is the weakness of the current agency in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We can use the elite forces of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the head of the negotiating team. Of course, it is understandable that there are current considerations in using the previous government's negotiators in the current negotiating team, but at least we can take advantage of other potentials such as the issue of negotiations with Saudi Arabia in China, which will also meet the government's considerations. Another way, of course, is to take the negotiations from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to another institution such as the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, which can bring together different institutions and advance the work at a higher level in terms of agency.
In response to the question of which direction this issue will take the negotiations and whether Iran can successfully negotiate on this issue, this foreign policy expert said: Negotiations to revive the JCPOA are not on the agenda so far. Negotiations such as prisoner exchanges or interactions with the International Atomic Energy Agency have no direct connection to the negotiations to revive the JCPOA. In addition, the repeated and fruitless rumors that we have witnessed over the past two years, as if "work on the second track is progressing well and there is nothing left to announce the result," are not suitable for controlling the currency market or any other motive in this space. Especially since we are the only ones who are always announcing such rumors with joy or fueling them. Regardless of the truth of the matter, this ambiguity lowers our position in general. In any case, this announcement and subsequent action by Europe are against political goodwill and will naturally not put Iran in a position to cooperate.
In response to the question that, given that the US State Department spokesperson announced that an imminent agreement with Iran is not available, one of the reasons for the silence on the negotiations was the suspension of Rob Malley due to the misuse of classified information. What is your analysis and how can this issue be related to each other, this foreign policy analyst said: Of course, when we look at the history of Iran-US relations, at such junctures, a hand has come from outside and touched the table. I analyze the problem that has arisen for Mr. Malley of this type, and I do not think it is unlikely that the Israelis have been able to marginalize him in any way. But I do not accept that this is the reason for the silence. Because before that, as was said, there were no progressive and substantive negotiations on the revival of the JCPOA, and this was initially negligence on the part of the newly formed Biden administration and then procrastination on our part. At the same time, unlike many other cases in engineering matters, the political atmosphere is not stable, and you do not face a single issue at different times. Rather, the same issue takes on completely different dimensions at different times.
In response to the question of how you analyze the future of unwritten negotiations with the events that have occurred recently and what their fate will be, Karimi said: I personally do not believe in any specific negotiations. This unwritten understanding, as it was mentioned, is freeze to freeze. That is, for obvious reasons on the Iranian side and due to the upcoming elections, etc. in the United States, neither side seeks to escalate the situation, and this, of course, is not a very important matter. With these assumptions, we lost a very open window in negotiations and achieving the revival of the JCPOA at the end of Mr. Rouhani's administration and the beginning of Mr. Raisi's administration, and the task is becoming increasingly difficult. Time is a very important issue in foreign policy, and the most important guarantee for any agreement is its successful implementation for a period of time, albeit a longer one. Unfortunately, instead of realism, we have engaged in competition and position-making, and now that new components are entering the equations and complicating them, it is a bit too late to properly apply a proper understanding.
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