He added: In foreign policy, we have recently managed the issue of the dispute with Saudi Arabia and reached a kind of understanding with the Agency, but these tasks were not carried out by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Therefore, even cases that have made one or two steps of progress have been taken outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and this is of course not beneficial for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At least from the outside, it seems that the Foreign Ministry has not been able to be as useful as expected, and therefore sensitive cases such as the Saudi Arabia issue, etc. are handled at a level outside the Foreign Ministry, and even the capacities of diplomats such as Mr. Khaji and Mr. Zabib are used personally and outside the Foreign Ministry team.
This international affairs analyst added: The fact that the Foreign Ministry is gradually losing its former role in security and nuclear issues and that other institutions are trying to equip themselves with diplomatic capacity and carry out the work directly is not very interesting; because it is the Foreign Ministry that has representation everywhere in the world, has a history, has a strong body of experts and first-hand field information, and can act within its own structure. But for example, when the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council or the Atomic Energy Organization are supposed to directly take on diplomatic work, many capacities are not used, and I feel that this has happened due to the level of efficiency of the team at the top of the Foreign Ministry in the past year.
In response to the question of what the most important weakness and strength of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was last year and what measures the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should put on its agenda this year to avoid repeating the weaknesses and solve the existing problems, Karimi said: Of course, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a body of experts in the political cadre that is stable and typically enjoys relative efficiency. What can be more subject to periodic evaluations is the approach of the top of the foreign policy apparatus. In any case, it cannot be hidden that our foreign policy, especially in the past year and a half, has not had a positive record, and due to various factors, we are not currently in a good position in international public opinion, and this is while the current team took over the foreign policy apparatus in a situation where we were generally in the right position in public opinion.
He added: Unfortunately, the weakness in narrative creation has caused the place of the oppressor and the oppressed to change in some scenes. Unfortunately, of course, this damage is generally directed at the structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which considers public diplomacy, firstly, as a matter of the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and secondly, under the deputy who is responsible for the task of spokesperson, and these two are not synonymous; it seems that in public diplomacy, like a spokesperson, we express our position regardless of the status of the listener. A spokesperson has a somewhat cold, one-sided and governmental nature, while public diplomacy, which is responsible for the main task of narrative creation, should operate within the fabric of society and public opinion. An example of this was the way Mr. Zarif personally dealt with the media and social networks, which had appropriate feedback.
This international affairs analyst clarified: If such a matter is to be carried out outside of personal initiatives and capacity and implemented within the structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, attention should be paid to its semantic nature and, as a result, a little reciprocity. Therefore, in the past year and even the past year and a half, due to the lack of such capacity, as well as the emergence of internal problems on the one hand and the failure of negotiations to revive the JCPOA, we have unfortunately lost the competition between narratives. Overall, regardless of the body of experts, it seems that the team at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not have the necessary expert capacity.
In response to the question of what, in your opinion, is the most important challenge for our country’s diplomatic apparatus for this year and what the solution to overcome it should be, Karimi said: “I think the most important agenda is still the revival of the JCPOA, which is still in the hands of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This, of course, can be the most important challenge or the most important opportunity for diplomacy. There is not much or difficult work left. The only thing that is exposed is the Biden administration being exposed to elections and as a result, becoming conservative, which of course is also thanks to our own self-imposed timing that we have reached this point.”
He added: “We must try to improve our relations in the international environment and reduce hostilities.” It is not necessary for every issue to become a major problem. Even if the issues are not resolved, they do not need to keep getting bigger like a snowball. The reality is that the resources of our Foreign Ministry today are not at the level that can be expected from this ministry, and we do not have the previous leverage in negotiations today. It is as if time is available again to negotiate the revival of the JCPOA, but to some extent we can say that we do not have the possibilities that we had in Khordad 1400 and to some extent we have lost the support of Europe, especially, as a result of this delay and lack of opportunity.
In response to the question that the government emphasized that we will establish good and deep relations with our neighbors, while reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia after 7 years, today we see that the Republic of Azerbaijan has deepened its relations with Israel. Where is the problem with our work? Is Iran in its true position in the region? What measures should be taken to prevent tension-causing actions by neighbors, Karimi said: I do not see the issue of the initial understanding with Saudi Arabia under the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; as we know, this issue has been advanced and implemented at the level of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Although, as I said, the body of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which of course cannot be evaluated in the new team, such as Mr. Khaji and Mr. Zbib, apparently played a fundamental role in this issue, but what comes to the task of evaluating the foreign policy of the 13th government, has not had even a moderate achievement.
He stated: "Countries with all their good intentions and nationalism may fall into the trap of their enemies' securitization. Just as Mr. Putin has fallen into the trap of the United States. We must put one principle at the forefront of our foreign policy decisions, and that is not to allow Iran to be securitized. Introducing Iran as a threat in the region and the world will cause endless losses for us, and this is what will cause coalitions to emerge against us."
Karimi continued: "In fact, political wisdom dictates that we constantly create differences among our adversaries and prevent any kind of cohesion in them. Not to take a position and conduct diplomacy in such a way that long-standing enemies unite against us. Today, Germany is one of the countries that has a position that is detrimental to us and its behavior has changed drastically. This, of course, must be answered in its place, but it must be considered that if the JCPOA had been revived at the right time and without the interference of current issues, perhaps such a change in position would not have occurred at all or would not have been effective."
This international affairs analyst, in response to the question that in the months leading up to the year 1400, everyone and the world believed that the JCPOA would be signed, and even the time of signing was determined, but this did not happen and we did not go to sign the JCPOA. Today, when Western countries are saying that the JCPOA is not our priority, it seems that Iran is more committed to negotiating the revival of the JCPOA than ever before. Has anything special happened during this time? Have we gained any special advantages? He said: I do not see any achievement. As a result of this delay, we have suffered a degree of securitization under the shadow of the Ukrainian war. On the other hand, the issue of internal tensions, which has been at least partially due to the lack of perspective and its disappearance, has itself reduced our relative advantage in negotiations with the West. Add to these losses our lack of interest in selling oil and condensates, the normalization of trade and banking, the reduction of domestic and foreign investment in various fields, and the decline in collective morale, which has also led to the outflow of large capital.
He added: This opportunity seems to be wasted for no reason; unless we are unaware of the cause or causes. Now the current situation is ready for negotiations again. But it seems that the negotiations to revive the JCPOA should also be moved outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, like the Saudi issue, and this, of course, creates pressure for us because it shows our utmost desire to reach a conclusion to the negotiations and, as a result, will reduce the readiness of the other side to make concessions. But given the trend we are witnessing at the top of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, perhaps no other solution can be found.
Karimi, in response to the question that today we see that European countries are inviting opponents of the regime and the opposition to international conferences and meetings instead of inviting officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran, said that this Western action does not convey a good message to public opinion. In your opinion, how will these hostile actions be stopped? Is it the inefficiency of the Foreign Ministry and our passive diplomacy? He said: Well, the fact that those - who are not government officials, of course - dare to do so is due to the weakness of the agency at the top of our foreign policy apparatus, otherwise such a level of humiliation should not be tolerated under any circumstances. Of course, this issue has passed its peak, and I think the hopes for the very low-level invitees have now been disappointed, and it is unlikely that we will see such scenes repeated.
He added: It is a fact that the weight of people with experience, capabilities, and personal skills, in addition to the issues that are ongoing in the country's domestic politics, all affect the face of our foreign policy apparatus and, as a result, the treatment we receive in the international environment. Perhaps if the head of our Foreign Ministry, the minister and his deputies, were more powerful in terms of expertise, experience, and bare capabilities, this task would have been more costly for the organizers of the Munich Security Conference, and as a result, such a thing would not have happened at all.
In response to the question that after Russia fell into the trap of the US and the West in the war with Ukraine and weakened the Russian economy, we are witnessing Iran paying the political cost of this war. Some sympathizers of Iran are worried that the Russians are playing the Iran card in the continuation of this war. Does the government have any measures to prevent this issue? What are the solutions to prevent such actions, Karimi said: In fact, Russia has shared with us the semantic and reputational costs of the war in Ukraine, especially by raising the issue of drones. Now it is no longer possible to hide the Russians' sabotage on the issue of revitalizing the JCPOA last year. Whether this imposition of costs continues in the coming months depends first on the fate of the Ukrainian war itself and then on what behavior we witness from Moscow on the issue of revitalizing the JCPOA. In any case, so far we can say that Moscow is suffering from the Cold War perspective in international relations and has not played a constructive role in Iran's foreign relations in recent years. Of course, this issue has a serious historical precedent, and perhaps the last country that can be trusted in international relations is Russia.
He added: The basic solution, of course, is to avoid creating a cognitive problem. We should not see the world and the order of the international environment as a Cold War. Today is not the time of the Cold War, the confrontation between East and West, and permanent alliances; even if Mr. Putin has fallen into such a cognitive trap. We must, like the Chinese, examine and implement issues one by one and understand the new meanings of concepts in the international environment. Cognitive holes are the greatest threat to our foreign policy; undeveloped perceptions of concepts, receiving information confirming our predetermined position and theory, and ultimately the lack of sufficient information on new issues can all be resolved with a more prominent role for universities and research institutes. Otherwise, it seems that due to the lack of specific personal capabilities, we cannot keep pace with developments in the international environment in terms of foreign policy structure.
In response to the question of what impact the Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement will have on Iran's relations with its neighbors and regional countries in the future, and how important and influential do you consider China's role in mediating this issue, and what China's long-term interest in this agreement will be, Karimi said: "Improving Iran-Saudi Arabia relations is a positive thing and will reduce our tensions with the southern edge of the Persian Gulf and will probably end the Yemen war with a moderate outcome." Of course, the UAE's willingness to relatively correct its positions in the last few years was a good introduction to managing the issue, but at the same time, small but costly troubles in the southern Persian Gulf will decrease.
He added: "What is important is that the Saudi issue and the destruction of its embassy were also one of the obstacles to larger foreign policy issues. Especially since Israel's rapprochement with the Arabs will always increase the risk of Iran's securitization." Now we must be careful not to fall into a new security trap by Israel, which has many examples in the history of the past three decades, where a new conspiracy begins as soon as Iran is willing to reform its foreign relations.
Karimi clarified: We must be careful that this initial agreement does not become fragile and that a new issue is not prepared by regional and international adversaries. In any case, China, which is considerably slow to act and even indifferent in cross-border issues, showed a kind of ambition in this case and made itself the axis of this understanding; a role that the United States could not play given the lack of direct and good relations with Iran.
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