Interview with ILNA News Agency December 25, 2023 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Sasan Karimi, a lecturer at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran, in an interview with an ILNA reporter, in response to the question of Mr. Amir Abdollahian meeting with Mr. Josep Borrell, regarding Mr. Borrell's words that a positive pulse was given to Iran from Europe, what is the state of the negotiation conditions, he said: I do not evaluate Mr. Borrell's words as a positive and serious pulse from the Europeans. In fact, Mr. Borrell is trying to keep the communication channel with Iran open despite the inconclusiveness of the negotiations and in any situation. Let us remember that when Mr. Jalili was negotiating, even when the most severe resolutions of the Seventh Chapter of the UN Security Council were issued, the negotiations were ongoing and the channel was open.
He added: Therefore, a positive signal cannot be obtained from this issue. Meanwhile, we know that the approach of the new German government and the French President towards Iran has become much harsher than in the past. I think it is unlikely that we will witness a significant and positive event in the field of nuclear diplomacy in the short term and with the current equations in the international space. The fact is that both sides of the story – Iran and the West – want more than anything to put the ball in the other side’s court and present themselves as tolerant and problem-solving.
In response to the question of what actions Iran should take now in light of this meeting and whether it is possible to reach an agreement on the same text proposed by Borrell, Karimi said: Iran should focus on resolving the issue with the International Atomic Energy Agency in the short term and make it its strategic goal not to refer the nuclear file from the IAEA Board of Governors to the Security Council. This will not happen with future promises to the IAEA, of course, and requires clarifying the scene and removing the excuses from the IAEA. Because although there may be political motives behind the IAEA's approach, the questions are largely technical and can be resolved by adopting a technical clarification approach and a favorable and diplomatic tone towards the IAEA.
He added: "Of course, this requires considerable knowledge in the field of nuclear diplomacy, and such negotiation management cannot be easily expected from anyone. If we wanted to finalize the negotiations based on that text, we should have done it right away." Today's story of nuclear diplomacy brings to mind the idea of a tennis game in which, after the ball has been hit, the player spins the racket in the air as fast as possible. Diplomatic action has its time and place, and equations and solutions quickly expire in the international space.
In response to this question, considering the discussions, what decision will the Americans make about these talks now, whether the United States and Biden are seeking a JCPOA or whether the JCPOA is still not on their agenda, Karimi said: It does not seem that the foreign policy approach of the United States is so flexible. Mr. Obama had previously compared the foreign policy of the United States to a large ship that is not easy to change direction. As we see, for reasons that can be guessed, despite all these naked differences, the Biden team did not reverse Trump's performance towards Iran. In addition, it should be noted that every actor moves based on its own interests or necessities and especially changes its own movement. He added: Therefore, if we want to think that the United States and Mr. Biden are seeking to change their performance towards the nuclear issue, we must be able to justify this hypothesis and explain what concrete benefit they have or what necessity is forcing them to make this change. I see any change in policy towards greater concessions to Iran as more of a cost than a benefit for Biden in the current climate of US domestic politics and the international scene.
In response to the question of what the timing of the negotiations will be, whether it is possible to conclude the negotiations in the short term or whether these negotiations will once again continue in the long term, Karimi said: We have no news of the talks held on the sidelines of the recent Aman summit, but various parties may agree to hold a meeting in Vienna at a certain level, but it is unlikely that such a possible meeting can be a solution or fundamentally create momentum in the current freeze.
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