Sasan Karimi, an international affairs analyst, in an interview with an ILNA reporter, in response to the question of how you analyze the effects of the increasing tension between Iran and Europe in the JCPOA negotiations and what damages and consequences it will bring, said: It seems that the negotiations to revive the JCPOA have ended in vain. Certainly, conservative European governments in foreign policy, especially in negotiations as sensitive as these negotiations that also have a lock on them, will not adopt such harsh positions towards the other side without calculating the negotiations to revive the JCPOA.
He added: Naturally, we cannot expect flexibility or goodwill or commitment to our interests from the other side. The job of a diplomat in foreign policy is to negotiate to find a solution that can put the other side on the path of their country's interests to an acceptable extent. But from our side, what we are witnessing today in our foreign relations, and especially incredulously in the negotiations to revive the JCPOA, is the result of a factional plan to disrupt the JCPOA, to influence factional and electoral competitions on the most important foreign policy negotiations of the country, to appoint politically unsuitable and non-expert people who do not have the minimum necessary resources for the intended matter to the most important foreign policy issue, to make illusory and unrealistic analyses, to be captured by one's own slogans and to applaud each other. Finally, the change in external conditions, namely Russia's attack on Ukraine, as well as internal conditions, namely the recent outbreaks, can be considered the end of this process (revival of the JCPOA).
He added: "The damage and consequences of this negligence, in my opinion, are the imminent referral of the Iran file to the United Nations Security Council by the Agency or the activation of the snapback mechanism by Britain or France." In any case, we can be hit in this area in three steps: the strict implementation of US sanctions by the Biden administration, secondly, joining Europe and others in imposing unilateral sanctions, and finally, restoring the six resolutions that led to 1929.
In response to the question of what your solution is to prevent further tensions, Karimi said: In any case, the tension on the European side is rooted in several things; their perception of Iran’s support for Russia in attacking Ukraine, the failure of negotiations to revive the JCPOA and the perception that Iran has bought time, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s cooperation regardless of the reality behind the scenes, regional rivalries with Iran that fuel pessimism in Europe against Iran, the energy issue that has presented this image of Iran that wants to exploit this issue disproportionately against the Europeans, and finally, Iran’s internal tensions that have increased the pressure of European public opinion on their leaders.
He added: "Naturally, in order to reduce tension, some of these axes that are potentially open to negotiation should be selected and negotiated directly and with diplomatic power, which I do not know of at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today, in such a way that European governments consider themselves partners in their fate and take a more assertive stance towards Iran."
In response to the question of what your vision is for the future of negotiations and what measures are needed for the negotiations to return to their previous course, Karimi said: "The first fundamental change should occur in the approach adopted by the government. If we really think that there is no correlation between the economic conditions and, consequently, the social conditions of the country with foreign policy and the negotiations to revive the JCPOA, there will be no necessary motivation to address this issue, which it does not have."
He added: "If such a thing were to happen, the next step would be changes at the head of the country's foreign policy apparatus and nuclear negotiators." Meanwhile, relations with the Agency and negotiations to revive the JCPOA are two main elements that are largely separate but affect each other, and their management requires real expertise, and simply being in a particular position and chair does not mean having that expertise.
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