He added: At the same time, this approach is not a wrong approach, but it requires significant diplomatic power. At present, at least, we do not know whether the diplomatic work with the Agency is the responsibility of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Atomic Energy Organization. What is necessary at the agency level is, first, that truly specialized forces (who are not obvious and easy to find) be in charge of this cooperation at the highest level, without their expert opinions possibly being retouched by non-specialist superiors, and second, that this cooperation with the Agency should be centralized and it should be clear which institution is responsible for implementing policies.
He clarified: Because in some points of the recent performance, especially in dealing with the Agency, problems have been seen at the agency level. Regarding the necessity of this cooperation with the Agency, it is also a necessary condition if we are to move towards the revival of the JCPOA. Certainly, without our technical cooperation and solely with the political decision of the West, the Agency will not confirm the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program, and without the Agency's confirmation, the parties to the JCPOA, especially the United States, will not have the political power to take a serious step towards the revival of the JCPOA.
In response to the question of what your analysis of Mr. Amir Abdollahian's recent meeting with former foreign ministers is and what its connection to Iranian foreign policy issues, especially regarding the JCPOA, Karimi said: Of course, such meetings are not new, especially in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Especially since two influential figures in drafting the JCPOA, namely Mr. Salehi and Mr. Zarif, are present in this gathering, and perhaps they can offer helpful ideas to untie the current blind spots.
He added: As if, as far as I know, this was probably the first time that Mr. Zarif's opinion was sought in the new government. It is also worth mentioning that, in addition to experience, Mr. Zarif has the highest level of expertise in international relations and Mr. Salehi in the technical aspects of the nuclear energy field and the necessary cooperation with the Agency.
He clarified: In any case, from this point of view and also considering Mr. Kharrazi's position in the Council on Foreign Relations, this meeting is positive, provided that the topics raised in it are substantive and the opinions are actually used. Of course, one cannot expect all weaknesses in decision-making and implementation to be resolved with a high-level meeting. The main issue in collective wisdom is not rare and symbolic meetings, but rather the use of the expertise available in the country and breaking out of closed administrative circles by opening the circle of problem-solving up to the level of universities.
In response to the question of what the next behavior of the US government will be in dealing with Iran, given the results of the US elections, and what behavior Iran should adopt, Karimi said: Of course, the Biden administration has not been in such a hurry to cooperate that it wants to face a new brake in the House of Representatives, but at the same time, it seems that it will use this issue as evidence of its more closed-mindedness in possible negotiations. Especially considering the monotony of the political conditions in our country, which has deprived us of such a weapon.
He clarified: It does not seem that the Biden administration currently needs or insists on the revival of the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions on Iran. The only current incentive for Europe on earth is to increase energy supplies to pressure Russia, which will be replaced by the new price cap policy that is going to be implemented. This is while we know that the current situation, where Europe and Russia are both under more pressure than ever, is very desirable for Washington.
Karimi added: Therefore, the only thing that the Biden administration will possibly pursue in practice in the short term is to keep everyone in a state of war and sanctions. In the medium term, Biden will also try to put Iran under more pressure with sanctions than before so that he can implement more pressure conditions or sell a larger achievement or mission to Congress. In any case, let's remember that Biden and the United States in general are not under pressure from the current situation.
In response to the question of how you predict the possibility of resuming the JCPOA negotiations this month and how likely it is to revive the JCPOA if negotiations resume, he said: It is possible. But at the same time, most of the parties may not pursue a substantive goal by entering into negotiations and may be content with simply not breaking this thread in their minds.
He added: The fact is that all parties except Europe feel at least a sense of gain from the current situation regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which, due to the events taking place in Iran's internal environment, will be more hesitant than before in responding to its sensitive public opinion.
He clarified: As mentioned, America will put pressure on Iran and possibly greater unspoken issues on the table of its domestic policy, and will also increase its hegemony by keeping Europe under pressure and keeping Russia's way out of sanctions closed. China and Russia will gain additional benefits from interacting with Iran, which does not have multiple competing options for them, and the same issue is also valid in medium-sized countries such as Turkey, South Korea, India, etc. that have interactions with Iran to a more limited extent.
Karimi clarified: On the other hand, Iran, considering the limited sale of oil and petrochemical products and the relative return of the relevant amounts, may consider itself the winner of this delay, in addition to its nuclear, missile, etc. advances. It seems that there may be a desire for foreign policy and subsequent economic openings in the country, which is seen as a more strategic view given the history. Therefore, there is a possibility of resuming negotiations, but in the current situation, the other side should try to ask for more concessions, and as a result, the conclusion of such negotiations will be less likely than in previous periods.
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