Interview with Ensaf News June 18, 2020 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Babak Majidi, Ensaf News: Although Mohammad Javad Zarif said just a week ago that he is not a candidate in the 1400 elections and that he will return to university after the government, a foreign policy analyst says that with his knowledge of him, he will be a candidate in one way or another, and that is a national consensus. He believes that Mr. Zarif’s participation in the elections is the product of national passion and not the other way around!
Sasan Karimi, a PhD in political philosophy from the University of Tehran, said in an interview with Ensaf News that of course whether or not Trump is elected in the November US elections could also affect Zarif’s decision.
Is there a possibility of Mr. Zarif’s participation in the 1400 elections?
I have a different analysis of the participation of individuals in the elections, especially Mr. Zarif’s participation. This is because I think it is still too early to make this prediction, but there is a possibility of his participation. In my opinion, several factors influence his opinion. The first and most important reason is the US elections, and therefore we must wait until November to provide a more meaningful analysis of this issue. If Mr. Trump does not win this election, two things will happen. First, the percentage of people participating in our elections will increase due to the emergence of hope in society. Second, due to Trump’s failure to win, the number of volunteers to participate in the elections will also increase. That is, people from various orientations will register to participate in the elections; because it is easier to run the country through oil sales, etc., in a situation where the US (probably) returns to the JCPOA. On the other hand, if Trump wins the elections again, the opposite of the points mentioned will happen; we will have few volunteers to register for the elections and the percentage of people participating will drop due to disappointment with the current conditions, like in the last parliamentary elections.
There are other factors that may themselves be affected by the first factor. One of these is the Revolutionary Leader setting the course for the way the country is run. It does not typically happen that the leader tells someone to come or not. Of course, except for the exceptions like Mr. Ahmadinejad in 1996. But what is important for a politician like Mr. Zarif is to smell the rails that he is laying for the administration of the country.
The third factor, which is also influenced by the first factor, is national consensus. That is, Mr. Zarif wants to show his opinion about not participating as firm and definite, but I don’t think any politician has such a firm and unconditional opinion. The experience of the JCPOA has shown that Mr. Zarif is a person who spends his face for national interests and has never created a safe margin for himself by spending the interests of the people. This factor is meaningful if a national consensus occurs; that is, a public demand occurs among the masses and the elites.
Of course, Mr. Zarif does not have the usual ambition and power-seeking to reach the position of president. In fact, if he participates in the elections, we will not see a competition like the competitions of the past 16 years. He will probably come to the scene if an atmosphere like the 1976 elections is created and we will not experience the destruction and competitive model of the past few elections. This also requires that in addition to the people, the elites also invite him to participate in the elections, and of course, political figures in the country like Mr. Larijani do not enter the electoral competition because if these people participate, Mr. Zarif is not willing to enter the competition with them.
Why?
I can say that Mr. Larijani is largely with Mr. Zarif and their political policies are not far apart. I think another factor in Mr. Zarif participating in the elections could be the invitation from political figures like Mr. Larijani to him. Of course, from moderate fundamentalist and moderate reformist tendencies.
How often do you think a diplomatic figure like Mr. Zarif can have a great influence on the domestic or foreign political future of the country?
In general, every politician has two roles: one professional and one political. For example, the fact that Mr. Velayati or Mr. Ghazizadeh Hashemi are doctors is one thing, and that they are politicians is another, and by the way, the closest specialty to politics is diplomacy. When Mr. Zarif says he doesn't know how to do this, he is being modest. Becoming president is not a technique that someone may or may not know. The point is that when a person who is tall in the world of politics enters the presidential election, leaders and elites from every field are willing to work with him. For example, Zarif does not need to be knowledgeable about sports to be a good president. It is enough for someone like Adel Ferdowsipour to be willing to work with him as the Minister of Sports. The point is that in every field, tall people and elites from those fields are willing to work with someone like Zarif, whether at the level of minister, deputy minister, or lower managers. In addition, Mr. Zarif has seven years of experience in the cabinet and is aware of the country's issues, and he has also been a member of the Supreme National Security Council. And while it is clear to everyone that what is considered a key point in Iran today is foreign policy, as a result of our foreign policy being so worldly that it can solve today's problems (if America comes to its senses, whether with or without Trump), we will have very successful governments in the future with an efficient body that is willing to cooperate with Mr. Zarif.
In the polls related to the US presidential election, there are possibilities that Trump will become US president again. How likely is it that Mr. Zarif will renegotiate the JCPOA if he runs for office?
I think that in a situation similar to what happened in September 2019 in New York and the meeting between Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Trump did not happen, if Mr. Zarif is the president, this meeting may happen. In addition, overall, the government, leadership, and people have a lot of trust in Mr. Zarif. That is, there is a consensus in the country behind him, and he, along with many individuals and groups, does not have major conflicts of interest with political groups and movements. As a result, this lack of conflicts of interest can give him more freedom in foreign policy than in the past two terms.
How likely do you think it is that with Mr. Zarif’s arrival, despite the events of last year and the people’s dissatisfaction, public participation in the presidential election will increase compared to the parliamentary election?
Mr. Zarif’s arrival creates hope, but it must itself be the result of a consensus at the national level. I think the decision for him to come is made from the bottom of society, and it is not that he registers in the elections to increase participation. Mr. Zarif’s participation in the elections is the product of national passion, not the other way around!
Mr. Zarif has a series of characteristics that make him attractive to our society today: The fact is that friends and enemies agree that he is a politician, that he knows international and domestic politics well, that he can work with all political factions; because he is a technocrat. He is relatively young, he is 60 years old this year, which I do not think is too old for the presidency. His combination with a young First Deputy Executive Director in his fifties or sixties (I do not necessarily mean Mr. Azari Jahromi, and of course he can announce him before the elections in the American style), can well manage the country's various ministries and be hopeful for the people. He is bold and a risk-taker, and he can build consensus, and he is also always impartial, and there is no black spot or corruption in his political and economic record.
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