Interview with Sharq Newspaper, April 28, 2019 -
On the subject of Mohammad Javad Zarif's proposal for a prisoner exchange between Iran and the United States, the initial impression may seem to be sending a message to start some kind of negotiation; but the fact is that by doing so, Zarif intends to throw the ball in Trump's court and not to rule out the possibility of negotiation altogether. It seems that this message has been well received; although it should not be generally evaluated as a fundamental opening and more than what it can influence public opinion and circles. In addition, he has shown himself to be separate from such cases, going a step beyond what diplomatic officials traditionally state about judicial cases - namely the independence of the judiciary - and has merely referred to the "possibilities" of a foreign minister. This is in his and the diplomatic establishment's interests both at home and abroad, and will reduce pressure on both. If we add to the issue of the exchange - during which the main sentence "I came with the authority to negotiate" was stated - the interview with the right-wing media Fox News and the separation of Trump's account from "Team B", we will arrive at this strategy, which is probably based on the greater chance that can be given to the Republicans in the 2020 elections so far, he intends to first address Trump's target group and secondly, by exposing internal disagreements in the Trump team, try to weaken the more radical group and thereby put pressure on the US President himself. If, in the context of what has happened, we evaluate the exchange proposal from Zarif as Iran's willingness to negotiate, in all this analysis it should be kept in mind that Trump will be thinking about one thing in the next year and a half, and that is the second round of elections. An election in which the mere start of negotiations with Iran could be the best foreign policy achievement he can present. That is why, by exposing this need and alienating his companions, Iran may be able to extract significant concessions from him.
Shargh News Link
