Shifting from Threat-Balancing to Opportunity-Driven Networks for Security and Development
Speech by Dr. Sasan Karimi, PAIAB Vice President and Assistant Professor at the University of Tehran,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Thank you for having me today.
Let me begin with the situation of my own country in Eurasia:
All of us know that Iran is the only country that directly connects Central Asia and the Caucasus to southern nations and the Persian Gulf. No other country holds such a pivotal spot on the map. This connectivity can greatly ease trade between the heartland of Central Asia and the southern regions, influencing various aspects of global dynamics through key corridors, such as the North-South Corridor.
The potential volume of trade that could flow through this exceptional pathway is truly significant. However, we must recognize the challenges that have impacted the region's stability—what I like to call the 'soft infrastructure' of any development. From local issues and isolation in Afghanistan over recent years, to radicalism in parts of Pakistan, and the imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran—these factors have created hurdles.
We all know that stability, perpetual peace, and security are the first and foremost requirements for any meaningful development. This means that every country in Central Asia and the surrounding lands must place these at the top of their priorities. We should harness all the resources at our disposal—through international organizations, multilateral initiatives, agreements, and other potentials—to maintain perpetual security in the region.
But security isn't just a military concept tied to ideas like deterrence or balancing threats. It can be reimagined through opportunity-driven ways of thinking, creating far more than just the absence of danger. If the different players in the region—and those outside it—focus on sharing opportunities instead of countering threats and fears, everything becomes not only smoother but also more stable, permanent, and enduring. In the coming era, our region and the world need a balance of opportunities and hopes, rather than a balance of power and scare tactics.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
We all recognize that Iran has been in a special situation for more than a couple of decades, often the main target of artificially imposed sanctions. Of course, Iran is now less impacted by these unilateral and other sanctions, but limitations persist. These unnecessary conflicts and restrictions arise from an old-fashioned 20th-century Cold War mindset that fails to understand the new dynamics in our globe—including all the emerging formats of powers and players in what we can call a 'post-polar world order.’
Yet, Iran, together with its neighbors and the neighbors of those neighbors, can reverse this course and guide it toward a new track—one driven by opportunities for the future. Countries around the world should keep in mind that these adversarial winds will pass, but a civilization like Iran—the oldest continuous civilization in the world—will remain. Iran is not something somebody can ignore; it will endure in this region with all its resources and potentials.
What I'd like to draw your attention to is the private sector in Iran, which can easily reinforce development across the board. This includes our strong engineering services, industrial capabilities, medical knowledge, and academic power. These assets can help all the nations here accelerate their progress and serve as a shining example of shared opportunities among countries.
Now, let me outline a few key points to shift our paradigms in international relations.
First: We need to transition from the Cold War logic of 'belonging to or choosing a power bloc' to an approach of 'expanding networks and creating diverse connection pathways.' For example, instead of asking ourselves, 'Are we in the Western/US bloc or the Eastern/Chinese bloc?' we should ask, 'What network can we design that benefits us from both powers without becoming captive to either?' In a networked world, our goal isn't to rely on a single great power to keep bottlenecks open for us. The goal is to build so many parallel and alternative pathways that no one can choke us by closing a single node.
Second: Giving primacy to 'network,' 'pathway,' and 'flow' in our political and economic relations can lead to the formation of a new ethic in international relations. That is, blocking pathways—through sanctions, war, or disrupting vital supply chains—is equivalent to 'cutting off the flow of life' in the entire network and endangering our common biosphere. Whereas in the bloc-based logic, weakening and impoverishing one actor is seen as increasing the power and wealth of another, perpetuating the cycle of violence forever.
Third: Iran has numerous advantages in such a paradigm. We have a unique geographical position that connects north and south, east and west. Our experience with sanctions has given us the skill to design 'second, third, and further paths'—a powerful reminder of turning threats into opportunities. And our cultural, religious, and political ties in the region can serve as the foundation for an expansive networked architecture in West Asia.
In conclusion, by embracing this opportunity-driven approach to security, leveraging Iran's enduring strengths, and shifting toward networked global relations, we can achieve sustainable development and true stability. This not only addresses our current challenges but positions Iran and its neighbors for a prosperous, interconnected future.
Thank you for your attention.
