Essay on Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) February 2, 2025 -
The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.
They say that “nothing happens twice in politics,” which of course goes back to an ancient philosophical view that believes that “you cannot step into the same river twice; because the second time, time, water, environment, and everything are different.” Now that we and the world are facing the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States, the wisest and most measured approach is to repair one’s own cognition, whether in one’s own identification apparatus, so as to pathologically follow the assessment of the cognitive problems of the past period, or to try to act appropriately and form a more realistic and clear image of oneself in the eyes of others. It cannot be denied that neglecting the latter will lead to the construction of an absent or dim image of the activist by others. The third thing, which is of course not unrelated to the first two, is the assessment of the environment and conditions.
It is clear that the most important and prominent issue between Iran and Donald Trump during his first term as president was the JCPOA and its withdrawal, and subsequently the policy of “maximum pressure.” Given Trump’s psychological profile, one of the most important factors in his withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran was the fact that the name of former US President Barack Obama was engraved on it. Even today, in Trump’s second term, his sense of competition with Barack Obama and his contemptuous actions towards Joe Biden are evident on a weekly basis.
Given Trump’s spirit, it can be said that a historical achievement inherited from such a rival predecessor is the last thing Donald Trump might be interested in preserving; and that is with the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose interactions with the United States are not frequent and frequent, while the aforementioned agreement was largely interpreted to benefit Iran.
Potential Opportunities
What should be noted is that there is currently no agreement on the nuclear issue and other issues between Iran and the United States, and whatever happens will be considered Trump's legacy; a legacy that he will spare no effort to preserve and promote, given his personal characteristics, even if the new agreement is similar in form to the previous agreement. This is initially an opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran to design a not-so-difficult activism that can ward off evil.
One of the opportunities that can be mentioned in this type of foreign policy activism is that an agreement with the right is usually more sustainable, because if some kind of agreement can be reached with the most extreme tendency, the more moderate tendencies will not have the motivation and tendency to disrupt it.
Another point that should be noted is that Trump, due to his second term as president, which is considered the last, and with the narcissistic spirit that the world knows about him, is restless about "making history" and "making achievements." In such a situation, what could be better than the issues between the two countries, which no president has been able to address in a significant way, with the Islamic Republic of Iran?
If the JCPOA had been reached during Trump’s time, he would probably have called it the most unique agreement in American history. So for Trump, it doesn’t matter what the text is, but the most important aspect of any phenomenon is its connection to him and its “Trumpianness.” This point in itself is an opportunity, because when the other side is so concerned with “generalities” as well as “speed of achievement,” more details can be obtained. In fact, it should be noted above all that the president’s autonomy can help curb the other side’s obsession and expert pressure and, as far as possible, build outputs based on data in a detailed and concrete way.
In many cases, especially on the issue of Iran, Trump’s priority is “changing the status quo.” This approach clearly shows the weakness and incompetence of the previous president. The former president’s inability in his first term was due to the inheritance of the JCPOA and the inability of the Obama administration to “put pressure on Iran.” While currently, due to the lack of any agreement, the Biden administration’s inability to “reach a favorable agreement with Iran” is also noteworthy. This is the most important entry point that should be considered. Promising signs such as the weakness and despair of the Iranian opposition and Trump’s appointments, along with improving relations with regional countries, especially Arab countries, can help improve Iran’s negotiating conditions.
Potential Threats
The first threat is our assumptions and imaginations. The idea that Trump is a businessman and will make an agreement anyway is not at all true. The historical record of Iranian diplomacy over the past few centuries shows that opportunities are not appreciated much and are usually considered permanent. This increases the level of expectation of decision-makers and decision-makers, and this cycle continues until the season of opportunity ends and the window of opportunity closes. It is at that time that the attempt to take advantage of the missed opportunities begins.
The fact is that, as Trump showed in the first round, in one case, we can expect two phases from him: if an agreement is not reached, maximum pressure can replace it, and he will defend it with the same characteristics mentioned above, at all costs. We must not allow pressure on Iran to become his desired project and achievement due to the activism of Israel and the opposition.
Some members of his team, such as Marco Rubio, are potential threats, but they should not necessarily be paid attention to. The person who plays a central role in the Trump administration is the president more than any other administration, and Rubio will be an actual threat when Trump’s project aligns with his desires.
Furthermore, Trump will pay attention to his psychological and media game in all situations. He will introduce himself as a hero both in the absence of dialogue and in the beginning of maximum pressure, during any negotiation and after any agreement is reached, and this is not far from the mind. Therefore, we should not allow these media and public maneuvers of his to destroy domestic morale and unintentionally place some of our forces in the field of his desires.
Another threat that can potentially be directed at any agreement is the generality and mediatization of an ineffective agreement, similar to the one concluded between him and North Korea. Such an agreement can at best reduce the pressures a little. But being real and providing media concessions and photo diplomacy must be done carefully and preferably after obtaining the desired concessions and not before; Because otherwise, continuing on the path will mean a lesson learned for Trump and will not be very attractive.
Anyway, what should be considered is that in the field of foreign policy, as long as national interests, prestige and security are preserved, negotiating or not is not taboo. Of course, conservatism in expressing opinions always keeps the expert or agent on the safe side, but national concern requires that we be bold and accept risks. We must take steps on the path; because without going, we will never reach our destination.
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