Dr. Peshkian achieved victory with all the characteristics that the presidential election, which was an early election, had in itself. Among the most important characteristics of this election was a fundamental difference that had fallen within the conservatism camp and had been inherited from the parliamentary elections last year and it was clear that it would remain forever. Another important issue was the two-stage election and as a result, the further polarization of society, which led to enlightenment about the tendencies of both remaining candidates and especially the circles around Mr. Saeed Jalili, who familiarized the society with more details about his current.
But in any case, after weeks of passion and excitement, the winner of the election was determined, and it can be said that society has emerged fragilely from its years of frustration. Breaking the election boycott, especially in the second round of elections, shows a desperate hope that can at the same time be a driving force for the convergence of the beginning of Dr. Pezzekian's government and a ground for greater frustration. These days, we often hear the phrase that this is the last chance for reforms, and this is a sign of the dilemma that the Pezzekian government was born from due to the situation of the past years, and therefore the difficulty of work and anxiety that has accompanied it from the very beginning.
Regarding the challenges of Dr. Pezzekian's government, we can present numerous lists. But the most important of these challenges that have been exposed to us so far, at least, can be mentioned as follows:
1. The lack of social capital appropriate to the institution of government in Iran today,
However, what is the subject of the current note is not the fundamental and inherited challenges in various areas, but rather the threats that can potentially bog down and destroy the government, and those are the constructs that provide the basis for breaking the fragile opinions and conflicting minds surrounding Dr. Pezzekian.
Like any solution, person, movement, and moderate government, the Pezizian government has enemies on both sides: first, the domestic extremists who are lying in wait to bring down their opponent, and especially their main and effective supporter Javad Zarif, with the first lever they can get. The domestic extremist rightists know well that if there is widespread enthusiasm and participation in society, their chances of winning will decrease. Therefore, their victory will mainly depend either on the non-competitiveness of the options portfolio or on the disillusionment of the general public of the fragile supporters of the reformist and moderate movements, which of course is one of the strongest grounds for the latter.
The prosperity in the elections also has an external enemy: the extremist subversives always need a fundamental rupture in Iranian society to advance their interests. The biggest enemy of the subversives, who sometimes even advocate a military attack on Iran, is, of course, the discourse of gradual reform of the country, and more than that, the existence of hope and cohesion in society.
Since this insinuation of failure and pursuing a sense of failure is beneficial and a priority for both extremist sides of Iranian politics (domestic and foreign), since the morning of Saturday, July 6, when the winner of the election was announced, we have seen several main arguments on social media channels and pages, especially on Iran International TV and sometimes BBC Persian:
1. The tactic of "inducing betrayal of the vote": The first tactic is to insinuate a sense of betrayal of the vote by Dr. Pezhakian's supporters, as if he and his government have no desire or will to reform at all, their morale and discourse have changed after the election from before and have in practice used voters as a tool to gain power.
2. The tactic of "inefficiency": Inducing a sense of inefficiency and failure, which is done by scrutinizing and exaggerating every action and result of the government, regardless of its starting point and advanced time. In this tactic, an attempt is made to distance the audience from the history and starting point of the government, as well as the conditions in which the government was located, and to forget it. Showing the defects in society, scenes of poverty, discrimination, etc. that are real but are not necessarily the result of the government's work in a negative way can make the audience skeptical of the government.
3. The tactic of "the government being tied down and the idea of gradually reforming the country from the ground up is wrong", in which the attack on the audience's psyche is such that regardless of governments and individuals, there is basically no possibility of any improvement. The belief of this by the general audience will be the biggest obstacle to the gradual improvement of the situation.
4. The tactic of "repetition of the government" in which an attempt is made to present and introduce the government as a boring, repetitive unit following all the failures of the past. The focus of this tactic is to make the audience forget or deny every positive thing that has been done in the past and become frustrated and despondent.
5. The tactic of "inducing a sense of corruption and the government's incompetence" which greatly increases the audience's psychological distance from the government. In the formation of the 14th government cabinet, we initially witnessed such determination, which was neutralized by a transparent and broad mechanism initiated by Dr. Zarif.
6. The tactic of "striking and exaggerating every single one of the government's shortcomings", which is done above all by exaggerating real issues, not addressing the process and the starting point, and above all by pumping lies and incorrect data into society.
7. The tactic of "inducing a sense of exposé against the government" in which a not-so-new piece of news or a sudden and well-organized scandal is released as a news bomb and exposé that any defense of it is useless.
In general, what the extremist opponents of the government, on both sides, have put on their agenda since the Saturday after the election is the regret-making project; in the style that some people started in August 2017, shortly after the election in which 24 million people voted for the winner of the election. This project is carried out and strengthened from three directions:
1. Domestic extremists who, with full facilities, produce daily anti-government content without the sign of fundamentalism.
2. Especially organized extremist subversives abroad and who have significant financial resources and professional media,
3. The fragile body of voters for Dr. Pezzekian or especially the boycott, who are ordinary people,
These three synergize with each other without any planned coordination. The first two groups produce and publish content, and the third group typically consumes and republishes it, ignoring this mechanism and the chain of content production and publication. This mechanism, which during the 12th government was heavily engaged in destroying the government regardless of problems such as Trump and Corona, in a similar activity, they throw every statistic, scene or statement at the government in a gripping, strict manner and with arguments that legitimize public opinion monitoring, transparency, etc., and initially put the government in a passive and reactive position and bring it to a point where it leaves these attacks unanswered from one point to the next, and that is when the hope of society dies.
In fact, it must be said that the disappointment of the 13th presidential election and the unrest the following year, regardless of the subject and its complete cause, were the result of the four-year activity of these two incompatible but temporarily aligned wings, which brought the development-oriented society to a point where it found changes and reforms to be a failure and sought a way out of this impasse in something else.
Now that society has fragilely returned to hope, it is up to political forces, media, activists, the government, and other governing institutions to be aware of such a trend, which could be the greatest threat to Dr. Pezzekian's government, and to prevent the "regret project" from happening now.
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