Essay on Etemad Newspaper August 27, 2022 -
The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.
International relations have had clear articulations in their history: the Treaty of Westphalia, the Congress of Vienna of 1815, the First and Second World Wars, and the collapse of the Soviet Union can be considered the highest of these peaks. But about the past thirty years, when the Soviet Union and therefore the international bipolar order collapsed, the statements were divided into four main categories: Some scholars and practitioners in international relations believe that despite this collapse, the equations of the bipolar order between the West and the East continue to exist more or less, the second group believes that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, there is now one pole left of the bipolar system, and that is the United States of America. This stable order is based on the hegemonic superiority of the United States, and therefore interactions should be re-founded on this authority. The third group believes that the bipolar system has collapsed into a multipolar system, including the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union. This view would also include less developed and developing countries, such as the so-called non-aligned countries. Finally, some who are more academics in international relations consider the past three decades to be a transitional period in international relations, which in other words can be considered a prelude to a "non-polar" system.
Now, with the outbreak of Russia's war against Ukraine, what has struck everyone, including international relations professionals, is the question of whether this war can be considered an important detail in the international order or whether the developments surrounding this war should not be considered so important?
Although the claim that America is a declining power cannot be easily dismissed, this decline should not be confused with the collapse of this power, as happened to the Soviet Union. On the other hand, this decline, which has not been unprecedented in previous decades, is not inevitable and unconditional: according to evidence, preventing this decline, especially against China, has been the major project of at least the last four presidents of this country - albeit in completely different ways.
To assess the effects of the Ukrainian war on the macro-international equations, it is also necessary to examine the effects that are already visible on various sides:
It seems that, given its distance from the scene of the incident, economic power, etc., China has suffered the least damage from this war, and its damage is limited to the increase in energy prices, which has been largely compensated for by the increase in the price of its export products and the discounts it has received on oil purchases.
Developing countries, which are more consumers than producers, have suffered more than anyone else from the economic pressure caused by the increase in prices, and this has become even more intense and severe following the recession caused by the spread of the Corona crisis.
Europe can be considered the big loser of this game: as a result of the Ukrainian war, both America's position in NATO and the existential philosophy of this alliance were strengthened again, and this country's hegemony over its European allies was strengthened. In addition, Germany's action to arm itself will bring great financial benefits to America and increase Europe's internal concerns. However, Russia, which now seems to be caught in the trap of the Ukrainian war, is considered the big loser of this war. Both Russia's military hegemony has collapsed due to its inability to make sufficient progress in Ukraine, and in a more general picture, this country has now given in to America's securitization project and fallen into this trap. Now all of Russia's equations and focus are on security issues and it is more than ever left out of any kind of development and overall it is lagging behind the caravan of strategic competition, especially development. Considering the aforementioned introduction, these equations will contribute the most to the project of preventing America's decline.
But the most important winner of the Ukraine war is undoubtedly the United States: without paying a price, it has weakened Russia as a claimant actor in the strategic abyss and broken its hegemony. Only with controlled support for Ukraine and at the expense of the people and infrastructure of Iran, the country advances its interests and plans without directly entering the conflict. It has increased its hegemony over Europe and its other allies and has established itself more than ever in the international environment. America is independent in terms of energy, and an increase in the price of energy carriers, given its exports, can benefit it.
Therefore, it seems that the Biden administration, and especially CIA Director William Burns, who was the country's former ambassador to Russia and has a significant understanding of Russian politics, language, and culture, has, with an ingenious move, thrown this country into a trap that almost all competitors are paying for, and America is the one who is winning this game the most.
This is the trap that China has not fallen into, despite all the US provocations on the Taiwan issue. China's foreign policy appears to be much more shrewd than Russia's in the face of US provocations. How much better it is that these two reactions be the subject of specialized studies in academic education and research in the fields of foreign policy and international relations of the country, so that the roots of each can be examined in detail.
Etemad Link
File
