Essay on Etemad Newspaper May 22, 2022 -
The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.
It is obvious that the conditions of the world and international relations are never fixed and static relationships, and this dynamic in international equations potentially contains both opportunities and threats. In the issue of the negotiations to revive the JCPOA, which began shortly after the Biden administration came to power in Washington and there is no shortage of talk about it in the country's domestic political scene, the issue of the dynamics of international equations can also be observed well: The fact is that last year, the process of revitalizing the JCPOA was to some extent affected by domestic political equations. After the end of the seventh round of negotiations, which seemed discouraging, a positive trend began in Vienna. More than anyone else, of course, was Mikhail Ulyanov, who, as an implied mediator between Iran and the United States, spoke confidently about the progress and availability of the outcome of the negotiations. Of course, at least he probably knew at the same time that other equations would soon dominate international relations and would also affect the negotiations to revive the JCPOA.
At the end of the Islamic calendar year, when the atmosphere was moving towards a Russian attack on Ukraine, analysts' warnings were typically focused on the fact that these new equations might completely negate the issue or at least increase the cost of reviving the JCPOA, and it would be better to finalize the negotiations and draw conclusions before the parties to the issue change their approach.
In any case, since the official and real policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran have rejected the construction of nuclear weapons from a political and jurisprudential perspective, and this issue has even been confirmed many times by the Agency, it is clear that nuclear technology is supposed to have a developmental aspect for the country and therefore should not become an anti-development issue.
The benefits we seek from the negotiations to revive the JCPOA can be listed as follows:
Consolidation of Iran's position of political authority and legal superiority regarding adherence to the JCPOA,
The absence of international legal and political pressure from the international community, especially institutions such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Board of Governors, and the United Nations Security Council, and the change of the culprit in the matter,
Not allowing the Biden administration to build an international consensus against Iran,
The lifting of unilateral sanctions by the United States, which, of course, almost everyone is practically struggling to comply with,
Consolidation of the implementation of the JCPOA and its normalization,
Normalization of the equations governing trade relations, etc. with Iran,
Sale of oil and condensates, and especially a medium-term view for developing gas exports,
Paving the way for attracting foreign investment and involving the interests of companies and various countries in Iran, which naturally does not begin the day after the signing of any agreement and requires time to normalize the scene,
Normalization of Iran's banking and financial relations,
The entry of superior technologies, especially from China and Europe towards Iran,
Of course, it is a very important point to consider that in political equations, creating space is of great importance and a mechanical approach should not be taken in evaluating the outcome of an agreement. The fact that a country or issue is removed from the top of the news and priorities and that cooperation with that country is no longer scary is the basis for the emergence of tangible results and the tightening of pressure on this country; something that can be achieved over time and in the medium term, and not immediately after an agreement. Because an efficient approach in international relations is a political approach, not a legal one. In other words, even with the lifting of all restrictions and sanctions, no bank or company is "obliged" to work or invest in Iran, but will do so when, first, it feels that the situation has become sufficiently normal, stable, and low-risk, and secondly, this work or investment will be profitable for it.
However, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and the differences between Russia and the West became more apparent, although negotiations continued in a formal manner for a while, the reality was that the necessary motivation to revive the JCPOA had disappeared and the equations were affected by the new war between Russia and Ukraine.
However, from the perspective of national interests, it should be understood that simply selling half or a third of Iran's quota in OPEC in the shadow of the Ukrainian war is not a great achievement, even if the money is received. In addition, of course, it should be said that the Ukrainian war and the hostility between Russia and the West have currently placed Iran on a safe margin compared to the legal consequences of not restoring the JCPOA in the Agency and the Security Council: both the Western consensus cannot win Russia's heart against Iran as before, and basically the West is paying more attention to its positions in the current situation, which may bring Iran closer to Russia than before.
It should be said that these two advantages (minimum sales of oil and condensates and the temporary removal of legal threats) are the same candy in the face of the high price we listed above. With a strategic and long-term view, it can be concluded that: stability and expansion of openings in the political, economic, trade and investment space and, above all, exiting the suspension of the JCPOA or its restoration have a higher priority than being complacent about the current situation. On the other hand, the possible situations that will arise for us in the event of the restoration of the JCPOA and the normalization of relations with Iran in the medium term can compensate for many of the costs that we have endured in the past ten years on the nuclear issue. If we take advantage of the intensified difference between the West and Russia and provide the basis for energy exports, especially gas, to Europe in a stable manner, energy security in Europe will be tied to Iran's interests, and ironically, this is the guarantee that can be pursued in reality for the stability of contracts and the country's foreign policy situation.
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