JCPOA Terror

۲۵ فروردین ۱۴۰۰ Essays

Essay on Shargh Newspaper April 15, 2021 -

The original text is in Persian and the following translation was done by Ai.

If we consider the timing of the series of anti-security actions attributed to Israel in Iran, most of them date back to two time periods. One between 2009 and 2010 and the other from July 2011 to the present:

Assassination of Masoud Alimohammadi: 10/22/2009

Assassination of Majid Shahriari: 9/8/2009

Assassination (failed) of Fereydoun Abbasi: 9/8/2009

Assassination of Dariush Rezaeinejad: 5/1/2010

Explosion at the Mallard missile site: 8/21/2010

Assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan: 10/21/2010

Explosion at the Natanz enrichment complex: 4/12/2010

Explosion at the Zargan power plant in Ahvaz: 4/14/2010 (possible sabotage)

Assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: 9/7/2010

Explosion at the Natanz enrichment complex: 1/14/2010

Behrouz Kamalvandi's fall from a height of 7 meters at the Natanz enrichment complex: 1400/1/23 (Suspicious)

The latest of these acts, sabotage of the power supply system of the Natanz enrichment complex, once again showed that these actions must also be analyzed in connection with foreign policy.

Now, based on the information at hand, we know that in the first period (i.e. 2009-2010), the main grounds for a new round of effective nuclear negotiations were laid (the secret negotiations in Oman in 2010-2011 and later the official negotiations in 2011-2012), perhaps we can consider Israel's sabotage and aggressive behavior from a different angle. The second period, of course, began a little differently: we can say that with the assassination of General Soleimani by the Trump administration, Israel was given the green light to begin a new series of sabotage and assassinations in Iran: perhaps in the hope of provoking Iran and preparing a trap for a limited military conflict that would be beneficial to Israel and help Trump's election. These behaviors stopped when Iran was not caught, and after the election results in Washington were clear and the opposing discourse won, Israel again, but much more prominently, entered the field of terror and sabotage and began a series of anti-security measures, this time with the aim of preventing any action to revive the JCPOA. Regarding recent movements (since December 2019), the most important goals that this regime envisions can be mentioned as follows:

1. Showing off to the new American government, whose political will and success in the region depend on the revival of the JCPOA, and trying to make room for itself in the Biden administration's Iran-focused equations,

2. Underestimating Iran's security capabilities and showing off power in order to destroy national morale and unity,

3. Trying to create internal division, especially regarding the negotiations to revive the JCPOA, and as a result, tying the hands of Iranian negotiators to bring these negotiations to a conclusion,

4. Limiting the enrichment lever in Iran's hands, and as a result, creating greed on the American side to adopt a more ambitious approach in the hope that, together with the previous case, it will lead to the failure of the negotiations.

The first conclusion that comes to mind from this issue is the renewed confusion of Israel, as we witnessed at the beginning of the negotiations that led to the JCPOA, and this in turn indicates the correctness of the effort to secure national interests by lifting sanctions.

With all the problems that the implementation of the JCPOA had on the American side, from the time the two sides entered into direct and public negotiations in earnest until the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the tense Trump era, Israel, which was challenged in its relations with Obama, did not have the confidence to carry out anti-security operations that went against the path that the then US government was taking.

Now, however, Israel has tried to start its series of operations before the elected government came to power in Washington, and now, with the goals listed above, it is trying to disrupt the ongoing negotiations as much as possible.

At the same time, the negotiating team, with a correct analysis, can use this threat as an opportunity to condemn Israel and to create an atmosphere in the meetings to its advantage. It may even be possible to rely on the anti-security dimensions and the fundamental risks to nuclear security and major environmental risks to officially condemn the other side for such moves.

Another is that Iran can turn Israel's numerous terrorist and sabotage actions into leverage by focusing professionally on public and media diplomacy to prevent Israel from entering into the desired missile and regional negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, minimizing the cost of this strategy with a legitimizing argument.

File