Published on IranView24, dated 1st Oct. 2025
With the implementation of the snapback mechanism against Iran, the future of Tehran's diplomacy is shrouded in ambiguity. Experts say that Tehran, on one hand, can move toward harsh actions such as suspending the NPT or limiting cooperation with the Agency, but on the other hand, it has the opportunity to adopt a positive and active approach by proposing ideas such as becoming the gateway for global exchanges.Zahra Torabi - Iran View24Sasan Karimi, an analyst of international issues, in an interview with Iran View24, responded regarding the implementation of the snapback mechanism and what Tehran's best response in this regard should be: Various choices may be available to Iran; from suspending the implementation of the NPT treaty to sending a letter of withdrawal from it. Even cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency could be limited or permanently suspended, effectively reducing the impact of inspections. These actions are possible, but the question is how effective they can be? They might even cause the other side, particularly the United States and the Israeli regime, to engage in even more pretexts than before, placing Iran further on the path of securitization and imposing their narrative on the world's public opinion.He continued: At the same time, Iran can also leverage global capacities; the disagreements between Europe and Russia, the rifts between America and China, and even the use of international institutions. Of course, this path is not easy and may not be very fruitful. But Iran can exit its reactive stance and, instead of direct confrontation, adopt a positive position.This university professor believes: For example, Iran could propose the idea of becoming the gateway for global exchanges; that the easiest route for trade and joint investment passes through Iran. Such a stance would transform Iran from a mere reactor to an active player in the global order. In any case, various reactions—whether negative or positive—are conceivable, and it depends on the decisions of the ruling institutions.In response to the question of what Iran's diplomacy will look like in the post-sanctions era, he explained: The reality is that Iran's relations with Europe are severely declining. The Ukraine war has intensified this trend, and the European Union will impose even more unilateral sanctions against Iran. This will even affect the minimal trade between Iran and Europe.Karimi stated: We should not expect this situation to end soon, although it will not be permanent either. But even in these harsh conditions, there is room for ideation and finding new paths; finding outlets and escape routes to pass through this stage and end this cold chapter in relations. In my view, now is the time for ideation on the ground of reality and shared ideals.This international issues analyst, referring to the goal of the European Troika in activating the snapback mechanism, said: Many believe that Europe sought to show off with this action; it wanted to once again stand alongside America and have a share in the diplomatic game. But if that was truly the case, they made a big mistake. They fired their last arrow and now, more than ever, they have been sidelined from important international equations.He added: Europeans are no longer independent in major decision-making. In practice, the steering wheel turns in Washington and Tel Aviv, and Europe is merely the executor. Therefore, we should not expect Europeans to choose an independent path toward Iran against America's will. The decision is made in Washington and executed in Brussels.Karimi clarified regarding Iran's relations with Russia and China after the activation of the snapback mechanism: The claim that China is also under sanctions is not an accurate interpretation. Perhaps some companies or minor issues are sanctioned, but comparing China's position to that of Iran or even Russia is incorrect. China has extensive and incomparable relations with the world.He continued: Iran's relations with Russia and China should be strong and solid, but they should not be seen as a weapon against the West. Today's world is no longer one of permanent and absolute alliances. These countries pursue their own interests, and expecting alliance-building and strategic unity against the West is unrealistic. Therefore, expectations from relations with Russia and China must be realistic. They will reap their own benefits and cannot assist Iran in confronting the West.This university professor, referring to the view held by some that the return of sanctions and this new atmosphere could be a prelude to war, responded: Israel needs no prelude for any outrage. The more Iran is isolated and placed on the path of securitization, the easier it becomes for Israel to divert public opinion from other issues and secure support and weapons from the West. But up to this point, calculations have not reached that conclusion. Israel usually holds the initiative and sometimes places Europe and America before a fait accompli without prior notice.Finally, in response to the question of what legal process led the JCPOA to this point, Karimi noted: The mechanism for returning sanctions is not a strange or unusual matter and exists in many legal agreements. Even the Iranian negotiating team had considered this option so that, in case of failed negotiations, it could return to the previous point. For example, in 2020, America brought this very issue to the UN Security Council and faced 13 votes against and only 2 in favor. But this time, the conditions had changed. The Ukraine war, the shift in the international atmosphere, and Europe's greater alignment with America led to a different course. Unlike the past when it stood against Trump, Europe this time preferred to stand alongside Washington, and this path brought us to the current situation.
