Interview with the Strategic Program, Eco Iran, dated April 19, 2025
Sasan Karimi, a faculty member at the University of Tehran, in an interview with "Strategic Dialogue," spoke about his experience of being in Doha at the onset of the war, the tense atmosphere in Arab countries, the weakness of Iran's regional diplomacy, the challenges of negotiations with the United States, and the necessity for a fundamental change in governance.
Referring to his 17-day stay in Doha at the invitation of Al Jazeera, Karimi said: In the first weeks of the war, the regional atmosphere was extremely inflamed. The intensity and scale of the attacks were shocking, especially for the public opinion of Arab countries. Even in TV studios, during debates, the sounds of interceptions and missile impacts could be heard. He added: The main focus of the criticism from Arab experts was that their countries had no role in the war and should not have been targeted. In response, I tried to explain the issue from two angles: first, from a legal perspective, that Iran targeted the points of origin of the threat; and second, from a security perspective, that insecurity is inherently cross-border.
According to Karimi, the notion that Iran could be pressured while other regional countries remained secure is "an unrealistic fantasy": "Insecurity, like a storm or environmental pollution, does not recognize borders and engulfs the entire region."
He also emphasized that when the issue of Israel was raised in debates, the positions of many Arab experts moderated, and greater understanding of Iran's arguments was formed.
In another part of his remarks, Karimi referred to his personal experience upon returning to Iran and said: On the way back, a Turkish-Kurdish driver showed a lot of support for Iran, but inside the country, I encountered people with completely different stances. This contrast was very bitter and thought-provoking for him.
Regarding the future of Iran's relations with the Persian Gulf countries, he said: The fate of these relations largely depends on how the conflict with the US ends. If some form of "cessation of hostilities" is achieved, improving regional relations will not be very difficult; otherwise, the path becomes more complex.
Karimi, however, criticized the performance of Iran's regional diplomacy: Our regional activities are not befitting of Iran. Many of our missions carry out the bare minimum of activities. In these circumstances, we need serious initiatives, including dispatching special envoys and the actual activation of diplomacy.
He also emphasized that Arab countries must be convinced that stable regional security is more beneficial for them than reliance on the US.
The international relations professor spoke about the Iran-US negotiations in Pakistan, saying: One of the main problems was that both sides entered with numerous preconditions; an approach that typically locks negotiations.
According to him, effective negotiation requires a "shared final vision": It must be clear from the outset what point the two sides intend to reach. Then, the details of the path should be negotiated, rather than starting with a list of maximalist demands.
He also pointed to the composition of Iran's negotiating team, adding: Although the dispatched team was high-ranking, it did not have an optimal composition in terms of expertise. Negotiation is a highly specialized task and requires the presence of professional designers, legal experts, and subject matter specialists.
Regarding Pakistan's role, Karimi said: This country is trying to play the role of mediator and prefers that negotiations proceed through the exchange of messages and a pre-arranged agreement, because this model is less costly and more successful for mediation. But this is not necessarily the best option for Iran, because in such a framework, the ability to persuade the other side is more limited.
In response to the question of whether an agreement between Iran and the US is possible, he said: Achieving a "sustainable cessation of hostilities" is possible, provided that the agreement is designed in a way that all parties can defend it.
Referring to Donald Trump's personality traits, Karimi added: Trump is seeking a major and lasting achievement. If an agreement allows him to present such an image, the likelihood of its sustainability increases.
The analyst, emphasizing that Iran achieved its defensive goals in the recent war, said: Iran achieved its declared objectives, while the other side did not achieve many of its goals. This is an asset, and now an important juncture has been created to turn this situation into political and diplomatic achievements.
In the concluding part of his remarks, Karimi identified the root of the country's problems in the type of governance, saying: The main problem is that in the driving sectors of development, the necessary groundwork is not provided, while, conversely, restrictive policies are not properly implemented.
He explained that this situation has led to reduced government efficiency and the formation of social gaps.
In summary, Karimi emphasized: Solving the country's problems requires a fundamental change in approach. We must accept that the path of development does not come from living an easy life.
He added: Increasing production, reducing consumption, economic discipline, and accepting short-term hardships are prerequisites for achieving long-term stability and progress.
