Interview with Sharq Newspaper, March 17, 2025 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Abdolrahman Fathollahi: In the final days of 1403, the chessboard of Iran’s foreign policy has become more complicated and challenging than ever. In such circumstances, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi spoke of a “new idea” to resolve the nuclear disputes and emphasized that the channel of negotiations with Germany, France, and Britain remains open. These statements indicate Iran’s efforts to maintain international interactions and find a peaceful solution. But the question is, will these efforts be successful in an atmosphere full of diplomatic tensions?
On the other hand, the Group of Seven, consisting of the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, met in Canada and called on Iran to return to the negotiating table and use diplomacy to resolve the nuclear crisis. However, this request was accompanied by accusations; Tehran was accused of suppressing opponents and attempting to assassinate them abroad. At the same time, new US sanctions against Iran’s oil minister and Iranian oil tankers have reinforced Washington’s policy of maximum pressure. These measures are in clear contradiction with Iran’s desire to reduce tensions and find a lasting solution. Meanwhile, Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s diplomatic advisor, delivered a letter from Donald Trump to Iranian officials; the details of which remain shrouded in mystery. This move reflects the efforts of some regional actors to play a mediating role in the ongoing crises.
A trilateral meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of China, Russia and Iran was held in Beijing. The meeting, which was accompanied by the issuance of an eight-point statement, reflected the efforts of the three powers to coordinate in facing the challenges of the Iranian nuclear file. This unanimity indicates that international actors are trying to maintain their role in this tense crisis. But the closed-door meeting of the Security Council on the Iranian nuclear issue, which was held at the request of three European countries and in coordination with the United States, provoked a sharp reaction from Iran. This action led to the summoning of the ambassadors of Germany, France, and the British chargé d’affaires. These developments, which seem to continue, paint a vague and hazy picture of the future of Iran’s foreign policy. In this context, Ali Bigdali and Sasan Karimi, during an analytical session in “Sharq”, examined the developments of the last days of this year. In this session, the two foreign policy analysts tried to present a clearer picture of the future of Iran’s foreign policy for 1404 by analyzing the various dimensions of these events. The aforementioned session was an opportunity to examine the challenges and opportunities facing Iran in the field of international diplomacy and to outline strategies for overcoming these complex crises, the summary of which can be read below.
Ali Bigdali: Tehran must urgently take steps towards greater engagement with the Agency to get out of the current situation
The beginning of the meeting was dedicated to Ali Bigdali's statements. In explaining the current state of relations between Iran and Europe and the weight of this actor (Europe) in the mediation between Tehran and Washington, this university professor first told the resident about the "three waves of media, human rights, and political-security controlled and directed in the West against Iran," which, in his opinion, "these three waves have put more pressure on Tehran after Donald Trump returned to the White House by the United States and Europe." With this understanding, the international affairs analyst begins to diagnose the pathology of the country's foreign policy and admits: "Tehran is confused and uncertain in formulating its current foreign policy, and any decision-making is not very defensible in these circumstances." From this perspective, Bigdeli is reluctant to hold a “trilateral meeting of deputy foreign ministers in Beijing with representatives from China, Russia, and Iran” and does not consider the meeting “very important.” Therefore, the university professor believes: “To get out of the current crisis, Tehran must urgently take steps towards greater interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency and resolve disputes with this institution, and manage the situation as soon as possible by inviting Grossi again.” Because, in his opinion, “this superficial action will reduce the current tensions in Tehran’s relations with Europe and the United States.”
Sasan Karimi: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should move towards creating a situation
Following the meeting, Sasan Karimi, as another expert, in response to a question about the evaluation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ performance in the second half of 1403 and criticism of the performance and output of the minister himself, does not consider some of the criticisms to be very misguided and for this reason believes: “The foreign policy apparatus of the 14th government should distance itself somewhat from the daily routine and dealing with current issues and put a level of deep and strategic perspective on its agenda.” In other words, this university professor believes that “the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should move towards creating a situation.” It is with this understanding that Karimi divides the performance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the 14th government in the second half of 1403 into two parts: "before Donald Trump's return to the White House and after," and believes that before Donald Trump's establishment in the White House, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the 14th government should have taken some initiatives and measures, and these measures were taken to some extent. However, after Donald Trump's return to the White House, a situation arose in which we are now faced with receiving a letter from Donald Trump, which is under review. However, according to the senior international analyst, “The 14th Iranian Foreign Ministry could have taken the initiative before Donald Trump returned to the White House and moved towards creating a situation both domestically, in the region and internationally. We could have taken steps before Donald Trump was elected, during Donald Trump’s victory until his return to the White House, and from the time Donald Trump came to power until now, and with these steps we could have taken control of Donald Trump’s foreign policy towards Iran.” Karimi especially notes: “The presence of people like Elon Musk as a figure outside the mainstream decision-making in the US structure and governing body and the Republican Party with a very high influence in the Trump administration was practically an opportunity for Iran.” Although from his perspective, it is not yet too late to use Elon Musk’s potential, he admits at the same time that the window for taking advantage of this opportunity is closing.
Ali Bigdali: Economy is a function of foreign policy
Following the meeting, Ali Bigdali criticized Iran's foreign policy, the views adopted, the type of decisions made, and the current situation in the country, the region, and the world, and believes that "this foreign policy has defined other goals for itself instead of securing national interests." For this reason, he believes that "during these months, we have been facing a level of turmoil in the fields of domestic and foreign policy." With such a reading, this university professor notes: "Until the country's view of foreign policy issues and the type of our interaction with the region and the world changes, the smallest events can put the greatest psychological pressure on the economic and livelihood sectors." From this perspective, the international analyst emphasizes: "Many issues, such as the economy, are a function of foreign policy."
Sasan Karimi: Foreign policy cannot be conducted in a bipolar manner and in a Cold War atmosphere
Following the meeting, Sasan Karimi also explained and elaborated on the question of why the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the current sensitive circumstances, is taking delayed measures in de-escalation activities with the International Atomic Energy Agency and starting a new round of negotiations with Europe? In response, this analyst, while acknowledging the existence of these delays, reminds: "When foreign policy is half a step behind, we ultimately witness events such as the closed-door meeting of the Security Council against Iran's nuclear activities last Wednesday, and these same meetings can overshadow Iran's next actions. This means that if, according to Foreign Ministry officials, a new round of negotiations between Iran and Europe is held in the coming days, the closed-door meeting of the Security Council can certainly affect the content and substance of these talks." With this assessment, Karimi emphasizes: “In the current situation, the country’s foreign policy cannot be managed in the form of a bipolar world and in a Cold War atmosphere.” Therefore, although he defends holding a trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, China, and Iran in Beijing and expanding Tehran’s relations with Beijing and Moscow, he also believes that “it is not possible to create a front against the West in the form of a bipolar atmosphere and a Cold War by relying on Russia and China.”
Ali Bigdali: Trump is not heading for war with Iran
Ali Bigdali, continuing his remarks at this meeting, evades the issue of the possibility of war and believes: “According to international relations theories, in the event of a deadlock in negotiations and diplomacy, we will witness war.” At the same time, he also reminds us that “Donald Trump will not go towards military confrontation and choose the option of war against Iran.” In explaining this point further, the international analyst refers to the efforts of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf region to control and manage the tension between Tehran and Washington and prevent a military clash. Because from the perspective of this university professor, "the outbreak of any military tension between Iran and the United States will have widespread consequences for the entire region." In light of what was stated, Bigdali, referring to Donald Trump's letter to Iran, states: "A gentle response should be given to this letter and then negotiations should be put on the agenda." Because, according to Bigdali, "if negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency are held as soon as possible and the differences are resolved, it can have equally positive effects on reducing foreign policy tensions and softening Donald Trump's positions, and at the same time it will prevent Israel from playing a destructive and sabotaging role."
Sasan Karimi: Iran Should Not Be Passive
Following the meeting, it was Sasan Karimi’s turn to give a positive assessment and propose some preconditions regarding the possibility of a change in foreign policy for 1404: “If the necessary exploitation and use of the elites in the field of diplomacy is carried out and at the same time the diplomatic apparatus distances itself from the daily routine and dealing with current issues, we can hope for initiatives in the foreign policy apparatus for the coming year; provided that the President, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and also the Supreme National Security Council have the necessary authorities in this regard.” In light of the aforementioned points, this international analyst emphasized with reference to the current situation in the field of foreign policy: “Right now, reason rules in a world full of contradictions and we must act correctly, logically, and strategically in order to manage the situation in the best possible way.” Although he acknowledges that "this situation cannot be managed entirely in our interests or those of any other country, the current situation should not cause Iran to be passive and wait for the circumstances to be determined."
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