Essay in Payab Think Tank July 15, 2026 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Executive Summary
The developments of recent months have shown that the Strait of Hormuz has once again become one of the most important centers of geopolitical and security competition in the periphery of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Intensification of regional tensions, the increased presence and movements of trans-regional actors, the efforts of some powers to redefine the security arrangements of the Persian Gulf, and the simultaneous formation of internal debates about how Iran will exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, have turned this strategic passageway into one of the most important issues of foreign policy and national security of the country. In such circumstances, the main question is no longer simply the extent of Iran's ability to influence the Strait of Hormuz; because this ability has now become an accepted reality at the regional and international levels. The main issue is how to maintain this capacity as a sustainable national asset, without creating the basis for the formation of political and legal coalitions against Iran or reducing the strategic importance of the Strait in the long term.
Background
The strategic space around Iran is experiencing changes that directly affect the status of the Strait of Hormuz. On the one hand, some global powers are trying to reduce their dependence on regional energy while simultaneously maintaining their security presence in international waterways. On the other hand, Iran’s major economic partners are increasingly concerned about any long-term disruption to the flow of trade and energy through the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside these trends, some regional and trans-regional actors are also seeking to turn any insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz into a basis for legitimizing their broader military presence in the region.
In such an environment, the Strait of Hormuz has become a symbol of the balance of power in the Persian Gulf, rather than simply a sea passage. The importance of this strait lies not only in the huge volume of trade and energy transfer through it, but also in the position it holds in the security calculations of global and regional powers. For this reason, any decision made on how to manage this waterway will have effects beyond the maritime domain and will affect Iran’s foreign relations, national security, economy, and international standing.
Legal and Political Assessment
A review of the debates raised about the legal status of the Strait of Hormuz shows that the legal regime governing this waterway enjoys relative transparency within the framework of the recognized rules of the law of the sea. Within this framework, the principle of freedom of navigation is considered one of the most important foundations of the international maritime order, and coastal states, while enjoying sovereign rights, cannot act in a way that permanently disrupts international traffic. At the same time, there is also the fact that the exercise of sovereignty in its strict sense, within areas under national jurisdiction, is the inherent right of every sovereign state, and its implementation does not require the consent of other countries.
From a strategic perspective, one of the most important points is to distinguish between “the right to exercise sovereignty” and “how to exercise it.” A significant part of the recent discussions has been presented as if Iran’s sovereignty over the parts of the Strait of Hormuz under its jurisdiction is a matter of dispute; while the main issue is how to use this capacity in different situations.
It should be emphasized that linking the exercise of Iran’s sovereign rights to agreements with other actors is not only unnecessary, but can also create the impression that Iran’s existing rights require the approval of others. In contrast, the considered and legitimate exercise of these rights can, while preserving national interests, also prevent the creation of unnecessary sensitivities.
The importance of preserving the strategic value of the Strait
One of the most important conclusions of the discussions presented is that the real value of the Strait of Hormuz lies not in its closure, but in its global importance. The greater the amount of commercial traffic and the dependence of the global economy on this waterway, the greater Iran’s strategic capacity will be in critical situations. On the contrary, any trend that pushes countries to develop alternative routes will, in the long run, reduce the geopolitical importance of Hormuz and gradually weaken one of the most important levers of Iran’s national power.
For this reason, the “short-term and economic” view versus the “long-term and strategic” view of the Strait of Hormuz could backfire and have long-term consequences for the country’s national security. If global players conclude that transit through Hormuz is always associated with uncertainty, investment in alternative routes will accelerate and gradually some of Iran’s geopolitical advantage will disappear. On the other hand, maintaining the normal flow of trade in peacetime will increase global dependence on this route and, as a result, increase its deterrent value in crisis situations.
Risks Ahead
Along with the opportunities that recent developments have created for Iran, there are also significant risks. The most important threat is the formation of a political and legal consensus against Iran. The experience of similar events in the international environment over several decades shows that great powers succeed in creating broad coalitions when they can present the actions of a country as a threat to the general interests of the international community. Any perception that Iran intends to permanently restrict freedom of navigation could provide such a basis.
In addition, continued tensions may lead to an increase in the military presence of foreign actors in the region. Such a trend will not only affect the security balance of the Persian Gulf, but it could also limit Iran’s scope for independent decision-making in its immediate vicinity. In addition, there is the possibility of increased legal claims, economic pressures, and international restrictions against Iran.
Proposed Policy Framework
The desired strategy for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the aforementioned area should, as a rule, be based on three basic principles: First, a clear distinction should be made between long-term strategic interests and short-term goals. The geopolitical value of the Strait of Hormuz far exceeds the short-term benefits or potential revenues from certain projects, and this strategic asset should not be subject to gradual erosion. Second, the exercise of national sovereignty should always be accompanied by the preservation or enhancement of international legitimacy. The more Iran’s actions are defined within the framework of internationally accepted principles, the less likely it is to be politically and legally mobilized against the country. Third, the exercise of sovereignty should not be conditioned on the agreement or consent of other actors, but should be exercised as an inherent and independent right.
Based on these principles, the most appropriate policy option for Iran is to develop a framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz that distinguishes between peace, crisis, and war. In normal circumstances, Iran should emphasize its role as a provider of maritime security, safety, and stability, and introduce freedom of navigation as one of the main pillars of its policy. In contrast, in times of war or when a critical threat to the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty arises, Iran should reserve the right to take appropriate measures to defend its national security.
Conclusion
Recent developments have made the Strait of Hormuz more than ever a political and strategic lever for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This lever will be most valuable when it both maintains its international legitimacy and its deterrence capacity remains intact. Past experiences have shown that turning strategic assets into permanent subjects of conflict can ultimately turn the same instruments of power into a source of pressure against the country. Therefore, the desired strategy for Iran is not to maximize the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz or to look at it economically and short-term, but to preserve, manage, and exploit it intelligently within a framework that both secures national interests and prevents the formation of a global consensus against the country.
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