Interview with ILNA, November 7, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
In an interview with ILNA, foreign policy analyst Sasan Karimi said about assessing the election of Donald Trump as US President and its impact on Iran's foreign policy:
Mr. Trump and the Republican Party in general are not only the winners of the US presidential election, but also the winners of the House of Representatives and Senate elections. This may be more difficult for the country in terms of sanctions, which at the same time require more precision. With the election of Trump as US President, we have two phenomena ahead; the first is the war in Ukraine, which with his presence will move towards resolving this crisis, and the second phenomenon will be the war in Gaza and Lebanon, whose re-election will give Netanyahu more confidence to continue the war. Of course, I don’t think Trump necessarily agrees with Netanyahu’s belligerent approach, but he may, by supporting Netanyahu, increase his self-confidence in killing, attacking, and invading.
He added: “What is important for us is the practical approach of whoever sits in the White House, which can be a place to look at, like any other president. But at the same time, the performance of that president and the new government can play an important role. It is not too early to think about how to do it, but it is not too late either. The relevant officials must design their own chosen approach.”
In response to the question of what the foreign policy of Mr. Pezizkian’s government should be today in dealing with Trump, given that we had a history of dealing with the Trump administration in the Rouhani administration, Karimi said: “Trump, like any other politician and president, has his own strengths and weaknesses.” Dealing with an unconventional person like him may require new and different calculations. It is also possible that Mr. Trump’s approach and chosen team in this presidential term will be somewhat different from the previous term.
This foreign policy analyst said: Iran’s foreign policy does not differ much in terms of principles based on who is in office in Washington and the White House. However, regarding the tactics that can be used to secure national interests and maintain national security, calculations can be made, which of course does not mean losing the means of activism.
He clarified: In any case, Iran always has the self-confidence to want to carry out its independent and active activism in foreign policy issues, including regarding the United States, and it will not be passive.
In assessing the impact of Trump’s election on the Gaza-Lebanon war, this foreign policy analyst said: Mr. Trump will give Netanyahu false confidence during the transition period of power in the United States, and he will become more uncompromising than before. But at the same time, Trump said that he sent a message to Tel Aviv that there will be no more war until I take office on January 20. So, it is likely that during this period, the violence and genocide that is happening in Gaza will accelerate more in a limited period of time.
In assessing the possibility of starting nuclear negotiations during Trump's presidency, Karimi said: It is difficult to guess the start of negotiations and it depends on the operational approach of the new US president. At the same time, Iran has always been a negotiator and has had no problem with it and is completely confident in it. But the issue is that it may not be limited to the nuclear issue and a more comprehensive design for direct or indirect negotiations may be needed, with a broader perspective, or an interaction that is not necessarily accompanied by negotiations or an agreement but may be more operational in nature.
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