Interview with ILNA News Agency, July 17, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
In an interview with ILNA reporter, foreign policy analyst Sasan Karimi said in his assessment of the likely path of the foreign policy of the Massoud Pezzekian government: It seems that Mr. Pezzekian has a coherent and experienced team in the field of foreign policy. The texts he published in this regard, and especially the note published in the Tehran Times newspaper, are a comprehensive program with sufficient subtleties in all areas. According to what he has published, Mr. Pezzekian's foreign policy has three goals: national interests, national security, and national dignity. Therefore, he will probably address the issue of constructive engagement with a gentle method and a national approach.
In response to the question of how he foresees Mr. Pezzekian’s plan for negotiations with the US government and whether there is a possibility of reaching an agreement with the Biden administration before the US elections, Karimi said: “Negotiations with the United States will continue as they did during the three-year term of the 13th administration. The manner of the negotiations is, of course, another issue, and whether they will be direct or not, or the extent of authority, will naturally be determined by the higher-level institutions and senior officials of the system for the new team and the new administration, which will be the case.”
He added: “I think small, topical, and possibly low-profile agreements may be possible to maintain the status quo, but the Biden administration will naturally not be prepared for open and comprehensive negotiations with Iran because it cannot manage the cost of it and it probably does not bring much benefit to it.”
In response to the question of how Iran's foreign policy and Mr. Pezhikian's government's foreign policy plan will proceed if Donald Trump wins the US election, Karimi said: "This decision should be determined by the higher-level institutions and senior officials of the system, but the government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Supreme National Security Council should design and prepare different scenarios with the help of the country's elite and expert body. If the president in the United States is to change in any way, meaning whether Trump wins or whether another option other than Biden from the Democratic Party wins the election, it is necessary to make full use of the two months of transition in Washington so that Iran's image in the new government is created by Iran itself and introduced in this government. If Mr. Trump comes to power, the situation will not be interesting. It will be a difficult task and requires a more open hand for the foreign policy apparatus, because the Pompeo-style view is dominant in his current team.
This foreign policy analyst, in assessing the cooperation of the fourteenth government with regional countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the axis of resistance, said: "I think Mr. Pezzekian's government will have an active interaction and presence in the region. Whether it is with the Arab countries, Turkey and Pakistan, or the countries of the northern Caucasus and Central Asia, which are of great importance to us. In these relations, attention should be paid, firstly, to desensitizing to the reform of Iran-West relations, and secondly, to bilateral and regional cooperation on security, energy and trade issues. Especially on the issue of Palestine, where Iran has considered relations with Arab countries necessary for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Regarding Pezzekian's emphasis on improving relations with Russia and China despite continuing to issue statements against Iran's national territories, Karimi said: "They have mentioned the maintenance and stability of relations with China and Russia. First, China and Russia should not feel threatened or harmed by the reform of Iran-West relations. Mr. Pezshekian's message to these two countries was that what is between us and you has a long-term aspect and will not be damaged by the improvement of our relations with the West. In addition, Mr. Pezshekian's message and speeches indicate that cooperation, especially with China, will be operational and productive when the obstacle of sanctions is removed.
He added: "But at the same time, these positions rely on increasing Iran's options in foreign policy and not being limited to a single-option foreign policy." Therefore, what made these two countries agree with the Arabs regarding our territorial integrity, that is, Iran's single-option, must be resolved publicly and with a radical approach so that these countries and others see Iran as a scene of their competition and not a country that has no choice but to work with us.
In assessing the improvement of relations between Iran and Azerbaijan under the Pezshekian government, Karimi said, with regard to the reopening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, "Relations with Azerbaijan have been at great risk in recent years and require improvement." Of course, Baku also sees itself as eager to improve relations, and before new provocations from other actors occur, Tehran-Baku relations need to be improved and returned to the highest level. We also learned that the Azerbaijani embassy has started its work in a new building in Tehran, which can be taken as a good omen. Not only Azerbaijan, but we, in the 14th government, also need to maintain and rebuild relations with friends and neighbors. A country that shares a land border with us can be both an opportunity and a threat. The 14th government is an opportunity-oriented government.
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