Interview with ILNA News Agency, March 30, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
In an interview with ILNA reporter, foreign policy analyst Sasan Karimi said: "I think this is almost impossible. The Biden administration has not been interested in such negotiations for some time. Given various issues such as the war in Ukraine and the genocide in Gaza, and the fact that the United States' foreign policy preference is not to engage in multiple issues simultaneously, the Biden administration has preferred to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue quietly and with a kind of informal agreement not to increase the level of tension and not add a component to the upcoming elections. Especially since it is not clear whether an approach of continuing negotiations will ultimately lead to a result and, as a result, to what extent its translation into the election issue will be justified for Biden.
He added: Unfortunately, we did not have this perception in our foreign policy apparatus and we thought that whenever we wanted, everyone would be ready to return to negotiations and possibly achieve a result. This enthusiasm that was assumed on all sides for any negotiations that we wanted and at the time we determined, caused our interests to be wasted.
He clarified: The foreign policy apparatus in general and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in particular must design different versions of their possible approaches for the remaining months for foreign policy decision-makers and calculate and present the costs and benefits of each. How we should play the short-term game and prepare ourselves for different scenarios arising from the US elections will affect our fate. Apart from the issue of power elements and the systemic and governmental level, we also currently have a bottleneck of agency. The reality is that the new negotiating team is ultimately not prepared either at the technical or final decision-making level, although their will and approach may be different from the first administration and may have become more positive towards the JCPOA. I think if we are going to look at real options, we should also think about a new team.
In response to the question of what your prediction is for the Republican or Democratic option to come to power in the United States and what effects it will have on Iran’s foreign policy, Karimi said: “In any case, we will be facing a second-term president in Washington, and therefore the pressure on us will increase. Traditionally, the pressure on Iran has increased in the second terms of the US presidency. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have the possibility of a second term. In addition, they will probably somehow end the issue of the genocide in Gaza, and the war in Ukraine will also be amortized as it is going. Therefore, there is a possibility that the issue of Iran could return to the forefront of issues and become a matter of power projection and maneuvering for the new US president. Each of these two candidates will be eager to bring the nuclear issue to a conclusion from a superior position and by putting pressure on Iran so that they can record it as an achievement at the end of their political careers.
He added: Therefore, the task is very difficult. We must plan the issue in three stages; the remaining period until the US elections, the interval between the US elections and the Iranian elections, and the space after the Iranian presidential elections in 1404. The aforementioned pressure will increase in force during the period between the two elections. Of course, I evaluate this pressure more as escalation, the imposition of sanctions, and increasing pressure in the economic sphere, especially oil exports to China. But what can help us overcome such pressure is, first, increasing the agency capacity and changing the approach of the new government, and secondly, and more importantly, national cohesion supporting the 14th government. This last point, of course, is not easy to achieve, and we cannot expect a fundamental change in society's response without changing the approaches that have possibly caused frustrations in society. Therefore, raising awareness among the public, taking the necessary precautions as a precaution, and making changes at the government level to be closer to the prevailing taste of society, as well as adopting a more constructive approach to foreign policy, are factors that can be effective by creating national cohesion and also directly in relieving pressure and revitalizing the JCPOA. Our most important issue is managing the issue of sanctions and revitalizing the JCPOA in a way that the sunsets of 2025, which were the golden achievement of the JCPOA negotiations, are not lost due to our current negligence.
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