Interview with Farhikhtegan Newspaper November 25, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
Zahra Tayyibi, reporter for Naqd Rooz Group: "Iran is preparing for nuclear talks with Europe" This was the news that the Japanese news agency "Kyodo" published. The details of this news stated that Iran is scheduled to hold nuclear talks with Germany, France and England on Friday, November 29 in June. Hours later, however, Baghaei, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, confirmed this news and said that this round of talks has been planned from New York, that is, during the talks that took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session, which means that the planning for these talks has nothing to do with the publication of the resolution of the Board of Governors. These talks are now scheduled to begin after a two-year hiatus and after the Europeans bowed out of the negotiating table during the unrest that began in the fall of 1401 and practically burned the opportunity for negotiations to reach a conclusion on a file. Based on information obtained by "Farhikhtegan" from some informed sources, "the initiative to start negotiations came from Iran" and the European side "agreed to come to the negotiating table with Iran," and no details have been discussed. Based on what Baqaei announced, there will be no negotiations on "support for the axis of resistance" and "Iran's defense power." Of course, Baqaei explained that Iran's position on the axis of resistance and Lebanon "emphasizes the Islamic Republic of Iran's definitive position on regional developments and support for the resistance." The question that arises in this regard is whether the start of nuclear negotiations with the Europeans is paving the way for negotiations with the United States or whether the Europeans are seeking to seize the initiative in the Iranian nuclear file before Trump comes to the White House. To examine this issue, we spoke with Hassan Beheshtipour, Mehdi Khanalizadeh, and Sasan Karimi, international relations experts, and examined possible scenarios for negotiations, which we will review below.
Sasan Karimi: Negotiations with Europe are not just about nuclear issues
Sasan Karimi, an expert in international relations, pointed out that negotiations have begun to regulate relations with the Europeans and said: "The negotiations that are ahead, according to what Mr. Baghaei also confirmed, are a prelude to the beginning of a kind of convergence or being in a common intellectual system with the Europeans. The adjustments to these negotiations have begun some time ago, even a few weeks ago and initially in New York. These negotiations are not necessarily nuclear, and given the recent issue of issuing an anti-Iranian resolution by the Board of Governors, it has led to a kind of magnanimity on the part of Iran. However, this is to prevent the Europeans' misbehavior on nuclear issues in the Agency and the Board of Governors from affecting the adjustments that were planned in advance. Iran is taking this step in light of its past experiences. However, the Islamic Republic of Iran has recognized that one way to secure its interests is to be in a common intellectual system with the opposing parties, including Europe. This system could include setting common language or setting priorities in bilateral relations, which requires creating a space for exchange of views and brainstorming between Iranian and European negotiators.”
The request for negotiations has been made by Europe
Karimi noted that negotiations between Iran and European countries have always been ongoing and official relations have been established between the two sides; although these relations have been accompanied by ups and downs depending on the needs of the time. Currently, it seems that there is inadequate performance and some resentment in the relations, which the party hopes will be possible to resolve misunderstandings. Therefore, the Islamic Republic has always welcomed dialogue to remove unnecessary obstacles and has such an approach now. Rather than the subject of the negotiations being related to a specific agenda or a unique issue, the main goal is to bring political literature closer and find common ground. The request for negotiations, according to my analysis, came from Europe, which has been sending numerous messages from the Europeans and the European Union for dialogue and convergence since the early days of Mr. Pezzekian’s election. Therefore, this request was most likely not from Iran, but Iran has always welcomed dialogue. There is no sign of weakness in Iran’s position that would cause it to avoid convergence and cooperation. The Islamic Republic of Iran has now reached a point of security that can be called sustainable endogenous security. This security is to the extent that it does not need to avoid any way that can secure its national interests. We have already concluded that we may be able to reduce some unnecessary tensions with Europe through dialogue. This decision, of course, depends on the positions of the parties; how much common ground there is and whether the parties show the necessary flexibility. It remains to be seen in which direction this process will go.”
Regarding the fact that Iran's presence at the negotiating table, especially after Iran's positive pulse and the report of the rulers, does not put Iran in a weak position, Karimi said: "If the Europeans have such an idea in mind, they are clearly far from reality. The reality is that, as mentioned earlier, the arrangements for these talks had been made long ago. In addition, Iran is much more confident and self-assured than the Europeans imagine. Therefore, it does not see the need to struggle or make sudden and defensive reactions. The Islamic Republic of Iran has shown a high political aspect in these circumstances and, despite the inappropriate performance of the other side, has been able to maintain the advantages of a correct strategic view. It has shamed the other side for its incorrect performance and pushed it towards a more mature and rational view."
In response to the question of what the outcome of these negotiations will be for Iran, Karimi said: “The answer to this question depends largely on the position of the other party and how they perform in the negotiations. It remains to be seen to what extent there is a suitable platform for continuing the negotiations and whether these negotiations can help manage relations and resolve some of the misunderstandings in various areas.”
The goal of the negotiations is to resolve issues between Iran and Europe
Regarding whether these negotiations are creating a space for negotiations with the United States, Karimi also said: “Regarding the relationship with Mr. Trump, I do not think that these negotiations with Europe will necessarily pave the way for anything. Because if the Islamic Republic of Iran concludes that direct contact or negotiations with the new US administration are in the country’s national interests, it will not hesitate and will do so. It does not need a mediator or intermediary. If it feels that indirect negotiations or even transactions without negotiations will help to better secure its interests, it will choose that path. In any case, the Europeans have their weight and position; Although this weight has decreased compared to the past and is not very significant against the US. However, the goal of these talks at present seems to be to resolve issues that are raised between Iran and the European Union or European countries and have nothing to do with issues related to the US.”
Khanalizadeh: Negotiations with Europe will not lead to results
Mehdi Khanalizadeh believes that negotiations with Europe will not lead to results and said: “The JCPOA process and nuclear negotiations will end in October next year, and there are no more than two scenarios that are conceivable. One of them is the end of the JCPOA, the consolidation of UN Security Council resolutions and their annulment, which is a normal process that should proceed. The second path and scenario is the activation of the trigger mechanism and the return of all UN sanctions resolutions. The process that the Europeans had at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting shows that they are seeking to implement the second scenario, that is, the confrontation process. Although Iran has presented them with attractive options to prevent this event from happening, even Rafael Grossi explicitly defended the measures and proposals that Iran has made; including reducing enrichment stocks by 60 percent, the presence of new inspectors. But the Board of Governors has shown that it does not accept this and seeks confrontation. In such circumstances, any action taken to negotiate with the Europeans, regardless of whether it is fundamentally correct or not, is the result of talk before the Governors' meeting or an initiative after it, but it will not lead to an outcome. If Iran were to take an action that would convince the European side not to go towards hostility and prepare the ground for activating the trigger mechanism, the proposal it gave to Grossi would have been effective. When such a thing is not accepted, the further we go and with the coming to power of the new US administration, the more difficult the space for negotiations becomes. "Both Iran and the European side will be able to make fewer concessions due to various international conditions, and the European side will not be able to move forward with any concessions at this level other than Iran's 100% return to the JCPOA restrictions. Therefore, the meeting and negotiations will be merely negotiations for the sake of negotiations, and will not yield any results for either Iran or the European side."
The Europeans want Iran to return to Esfand 100
Khanalizadeh also mentioned that the Europeans want Iran to return to all its commitments and said: "The negotiations are supposed to be based on the report that the IAEA Secretary General will give in the spring of next year, which will satisfy the Europeans' demands. Their demand is for Iran to return to applying all the restrictions of the JCPOA. That is, Iran to return to the pre-Esfand 100, two years after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, when Iran's 100% adherence to the JCPOA commitments occurred. Such a thing has not happened and cannot happen. If the conditions were for making concessions and slowing down the pace of progress of Iran's nuclear industry, the proposals that were given to Grossi would have been favorable proposals for the European side, but when such proposals are not accepted, meaning that the only demand of the Europeans is for all the restrictions of the JCPOA to be returned to Iran's nuclear industry, this will not happen; when this does not happen, it means that the negotiations will not come to fruition."
Europe cannot act
On whether the Europeans are seeking to increase their role in confronting the United States by activating the negotiation channel with Iran, Khanalizadeh said: "Europe was not the main actor when it had the good company of the United States with it, it was an actor dependent on the main variable, the United States. In the post-Trump situation, this will make the situation even worse for it. Europe cannot act and of course does not want to act. It does not have the conditions for it; the most important of which is the war in Ukraine. Also, yesterday, France again allowed Ukraine to use its missile weapons in compliance with the Biden administration. Another point is that in the process of publishing the news, it seems that its publication was more from the Iranian side than from the Europeans and was published with sources that were connected to the Iranians. That is, it is more intended to be a psychological actor of Iran's internal and political conditions than real goals on the European side. Even the European and American sides, such as Lawrence Norman, who are the intelligence and operational arm of the European side, have clearly stated that it will not happen and that negotiations are not that important.”
Beheshtipour: Dialogue with Europe may be fruitless, but it will not be useless
Beheshtipour believes that dialogue with the Europeans will not have a clear result and that they will ultimately activate the trigger mechanism, saying: “Personally, I think we will not get anywhere with the Europeans, meaning that the Europeans have issued this resolution to tell Iran that despite all the cooperation that Iran had with the Agency, they will follow the line of activating the trigger before October 1404. But the main issue is that we have differences with the Europeans over the accusations they make against us; providing missiles to Russia, their support for Israel, and the Agency has used these differences as an excuse in human rights and nuclear issues. But the short of it is that they have problems with us on several issues. "It is a good and positive step for us to negotiate with them to resolve our problems with Europe, but to think that our negotiations with the Europeans will result in them not activating the trigger mechanism seems very unlikely and unlikely." Beheshtipour believes that only negotiations with the United States can be fruitful and said: "Our main problem is with the United States, because the United States is the leader of all sanctions and is putting double pressure on Iran. The current US government, which is not in office until February 1st, is basically not negotiable. We should start thinking about working with Trump now and see how we can resolve this issue with him. But the fact that Europe, and especially these three countries, are coming to the negotiating table is good news and shows that diplomacy has found its way and wants to resolve the issue. Although the likelihood of it reaching a conclusion is low. "A thousand hours of fruitful negotiations is better than a one-hour war without results, so we must give diplomats free rein and create national consensus so that the same disaster that befell the JCPOA does not befall these negotiations."
The start of negotiations with Europe has nothing to do with Trump’s arrival
Hassan Beheshtipour said regarding the extent to which the start of negotiations with Europe is related to Trump’s arrival in the White House: “These negotiations with the Europeans were not interrupted because of Trump or Biden. This interruption was due to the events that occurred in 1401 and the type of perception they had. They thought that the Islamic Republic might go, and then they saw that it did not, and then they went after other things. The Europeans consider the missile issue a security threat to themselves, because the missile issue in Ukraine is a security threat to Europe itself. Just as it saw its own energy and food security in danger, so they are not joking and this issue is very important to them. However, despite the fact that we have repeatedly said that we have not provided missiles to Russia, they blame us. None of this had anything to do with Trump. Even if Harris had come to the White House, they would still be saying these things. If they are going to negotiate, they want to say that you gave Russia missiles. Answer these questions from the agency. Then stop nuclear activities above the JCPOA. But we need to see what our approach is? That is, we must always see both sides in negotiations. What are the goals of the Islamic Republic and what goals does it want to achieve through negotiations? What are the goals of the other side in negotiations, and now what is the win-win solution in the middle? Because if they activate the trigger mechanism, both sides will lose, meaning it will also be to the detriment of Iran, because more pressure will be put on Iran. On the other hand, the Europeans will also lose, because Iran will definitely be forced to engage in more serious activities and may move towards withdrawing from the NPT. This is while they could have reached a good agreement through negotiations, because neither Iran is seeking nuclear weapons nor does the other side want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But all of this depends on the American side, because it has shown that if we move forward with the European side and reach an agreement, it can cause problems for this agreement.” Beheshtipour, in response to the question of how much the start of negotiations is related to the publication of the resolution of the Board of Governors, said: “These resolutions are a page after page of documentation. When you issue a resolution against a country in the Board of Governors, it means that you are setting a bad precedent for it, so we must be careful, even if these resolutions have no effect on our nuclear issues, they still set a bad precedent for us. This is the fourth resolution issued against us after the JCPOA. We must stop this process with every diplomatic trick. The Americans always say that they support the resolution. They are not coming to issue the resolution themselves, but they have put those three countries ahead. While in 2010, when the Americans wanted to pass a resolution against Iran, the entire European Union abstained, and America was disgraced. This happened twice and failed each time.”
Negotiations with the Europeans will not be useless
Beheshtipour pointed to the opportunities and threats of negotiations with the Europeans and said: “The biggest opportunity is that Iran shows that it is a negotiation and dialogue person and wants to solve the problem through negotiation and dialogue, and even creates a positive atmosphere internally. Its threat is that whatever agreement the Europeans make, they cannot implement it, because no matter how much I looked at it in these years, I saw that the Europeans cannot implement everything they agree on with Iran. Like the two plans they made after the JCPOA and said that the United States would prevent its implementation with its influence in the financial markets. However, it reduces the tension between Iran and Europe, even if an agreement and lifting of sanctions are not reached, it is still a good thing. "Uselessness is different from ineffectual. The result we want is the lifting of sanctions, but the lifting of sanctions is with the United States. But the benefit is that it can reduce the existing tension and achieve that."
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