Interview with ILNA News Agency, April 9, 2024 -
The interview was in Persian and the translation below was done by Ai.
In an interview with ILNA reporter, foreign policy analyst Sasan Karimi, in response to the question that in recent days, CNN has been quoted as saying that the United States is on full alert and is actively preparing for a “significant” attack by Iran. What is your analysis of the attack? He said: I think this news is incorrect and is considered more of an exercise in the media’s semantic power tools. Any retaliatory action by Iran will naturally not be accompanied by such a prediction from the United States. On the other hand, currently one of the most important elements of Iran’s calculation is the issue of Israel, and especially Netanyahu’s, welcoming Iran’s and the United States’ subsequent involvement in a significant military tension. Such an escalation in the heat of war could, more than anything else, turn the problem of Israel and the Netanyahu government into a problem for the region, Iran, and the United States. Therefore, for Iran, this calculation is strategic, not tactical and emotional.
In response to the question of whether Iran will take direct action in response to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria or whether it has another plan, Karimi said: "The answer to this question requires classified information that I do not have, and if anyone does, by definition, they cannot use it for the public. But my analysis is that Iran reserves its right to respond, and should try to consolidate its position in the negotiations of the delegations with countries that influence international equations. Iran itself will probably not respond operationally. But naturally, Iran's like-minded people in the region, who are resistance groups, will be disturbed by this bold behavior of Israel, and as a result, an increase in the level of scattered conflicts between resistance forces in the region and Israeli positions is not out of the question.
In response to the question of whether Iran will intervene indirectly through proxy forces or will put strategic patience on its agenda, this international affairs analyst said: Strategic patience is probably the main solution. First, this patience is not a burden on Iran's weakness, and second, from a political point of view, Iran's position of restraint and being attacked is something that must be sold to them in negotiations with other influential countries, and this is, of course, the mission of the Foreign Ministry staff, especially our missions around the world.
He added: In addition, Iran should have done better in creating a narrative and highlighting the issue in the international media. The media and diplomacy of the missions are a kind of weakness of Iran that should be focused on. We need to constantly use the elite for this issue. We cannot just act on this issue when a problem arises. Like the missile, nuclear, and drone issues that have been focused, invested, and managed, and real elites (and not those around power) have been used, semantic issues such as diplomacy and the media should be pursued with the same seriousness.
This foreign policy expert clarified: Today's soft issues may be more of a power-building priority. But unfortunately, sometimes we think that this can be done by chanting slogans, repeating positions vigorously, and sometimes with a specific tone. But the reality is that if that were the case, we would not have this problem in the semantic dimensions of power right now. Sometimes, it is true that those who need to cooperate with us may not be with and like-minded with a government or a specific political trend in all aspects, but if they can do something, national interests should not be sacrificed for such abandonment.
Karimi clarified: Sometimes what is created on the margins of some power institutions jeopardizes the recognition of the institutions in the international environment and they suffer from group-think and mutual approval. Therefore, the real experts in the matter, who may have a form, method, or content other than what is officially desirable, are left aside, and in such matters, the country suffers losses and national rights and interests are trampled on in the international environment. Today, our semantic power in pressuring Israel in every corner of the world must be a priority.
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